Tesla's Cybercab may command a premium because it offers a much better ride. It seems to earn over $3 per mile, making Tesla a cash generator for now, though that pricing may not last. Q4 robotaxi miles already appear above Q3 with less than a third of the quarter elapsed; paid miles are tracking for over 3x quarterly growth. Grok roughly estimates Tesla's robotaxi annual revenue run rate at $100-150M versus Waymo's $390-500M; Tesla is on pace to overtake Waymo within months. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com 

Uber's network effects could make it the app robotaxi fleets need to keep their cars fully operational. It is one of the best platforms on earth and a five-year buy at today's valuation, with opportunity too compelling to pass up despite shares falling about 25% in the past year on robotaxi fears. Bookings grew 24% last quarter and trailing free cash flow exceeded $10 billion. Waymo and Tesla could choose to bypass Uber; Waymo already runs its own app in most of its cities. x.com 

Tesla's low-cost, high-margin Cybercabs make its Robotaxi opportunity bigger than investors appreciate. ARK estimates each costs about $30K to make and generates $93K a year at roughly 68% gross margin; Tesla is not bullish enough in investors' eyes. Texas registrations show 1,080 Teslas, including 573 Cybercabs, versus 1,207 Waymos; these are registrations, not active rides. Cybercabs already outnumber Model Ys less than two months after launch. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's Cybercab could pay back faster than Waymo's vehicles because its estimated build cost is seven times lower. At 100 miles a day and $3 a mile, a $25,000 Cybercab at $0.25 per mile in operating costs would net about $100,000 a year at a 92% margin, paying back in about three months. A $175,000 Waymo vehicle at $0.60 per mile would net about $88,000 at an 80% margin, paying back in about two years. Lower fares would lengthen both paybacks, but Cybercab keeps its capital advantage. x.com 

Robotaxis could widen Uber's moat rather than destroy it, because its real advantage is the network matching huge pools of demand with whatever supply is available, not drivers' lack of negotiating power. Robotaxis change the supply but don't eliminate the network. The question is whether Uber becomes the toll road for autonomous mobility, letting Waymo and dozens of competing AV suppliers fight over the economics while Uber owns the customer, demand and dispatch layer. x.com 

Tesla's Cybercab ramp is gaining ground against Waymo in Austin. Robotaxi Tracker puts Tesla at 438,000 robotaxi miles in the week to October 18, versus Waymo's 406,000 weekly average in Q2 2026; Waymo's data lag means this is not a same-week comparison. x.com 

Waymo is becoming the strongest disruptor to Uber and Lyft in US ride-hailing. Autonomous vehicles can compress the cost and margins of human ride-share sharply, and riders pick the cheapest option, where Waymo or Tesla would likely win; a Waymo rival to Uber Eats could do the same to delivery. Per the FT, Waymo is exploring a split from Uber, which only ever served as Google's distribution funnel. The near-term impact is negligible, but long term both look cooked in the US unless they act. … Show more

Uber's trips could keep growing even without a Waymo partnership because the ride-hail market may expand faster than Waymo takes share. Based on estimated inputs and Waymo's reported fleet plans, every modeled scenario has Uber trips growing, though its US trip share falls from about 73% to 69% by Q4 2028 in the target case. The model excludes take rate, pricing and Uber's AV capex. x.com 

Uber will not exist in a decade, and likely sooner, because it cannot compete with Tesla's Cybercab, a product that is half the price, safer, and will only get cheaper and safer. Riding alone in a personal Cybercab that doubles as an entertainment space beats getting into a car with a stranger. Tesla is beginning to mass-produce a vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals; now it is just a matter of scaling, which takes time. x.com  x.com