Lumentum is a great business, but at $954 its risk/reward is not attractive. Applying 30x to fiscal 2028 non-GAAP EPS of $40 gives a 2027 price target of $1,200, about 26% upside, or roughly 15% after adjusting for execution, financial, technology and supply risks. Reaching it needs on-time manufacturing ramps, sustained pricing power and cash flow without excessive dilution. Lost pricing power plus slipping OCS or laser ramps would break the thesis; a significant dip would offer a better entry. … Show more

Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.com 

Optical circuit switching could become a $20B-plus annual market by 2030, and Lumentum leads merchant shipments today. Per FundaAI, the top authority on optics, Lumentum expects September-quarter OCS revenue above $100m, which FundaAI sees passing $2.5b next year, as Google's TPU designs add OCS ports and demand widens beyond Google, with NVIDIA expected to adopt OCS from late 2028. Coherent is the other US-listed supplier. x.com 

Lumentum requires paying up heavily for a company that is not yet making money. Revenue grew 109% year over year, but it trades at about 25 times annualized sales, and it is growing less than memory makers at ten times their valuation. @ZeekTyt cites Lumentum's CEO expecting to supply only about 30% of requested laser demand as CPO and NPO ramp in 2027, with balance around 2029-30. x.com  x.com 

The photonics-as-AI-bottleneck claim has faded, leaving Lumentum facing more pain before the theme recovers. A large December options node sits at $600; the stock bot targets downside at $650 and $595, with $581 a possible liquidity sweep where smart money would buy instead of rushing in at $650 or $630. Most photonics companies will likely never come back. x.com 

Lumentum's CEO said at Deutsche Bank's tech conference that it can earn $40-plus of EPS in FY2028 after a huge uptick in its order book. That is nearly 5x the $8.67 earned in FY2026 within two years, and well above the sell side's $33 FY2028 estimate, so the stock should have risen around 10% on it. x.com 

Marvell's potential Lumentum acquisition may fail to increase per-share value because the added profits may not cover dilution and financing costs. A simplified calculation using reported market values implies roughly 38%-45% more shares, requiring about 45% more combined net profit to preserve EPS; debt would add interest and repayment pressure. If the price already reflects future growth, a control premium and possible customer concerns add risk. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics' possible 2028 revenue makes even a 100% takeover premium too small if it delivers on 2027-28 expectations. Revenue of $6-8B in calendar 2028 at an illustrative 8x multiple would imply about $56B in market value, versus $7B today. That is the upside worth holding out for. x.com 

Lumentum's 109% year-on-year growth and sold-out capacity through 2029 make selling its AI optics exposure questionable. Bloomberg reported Marvell is in advanced talks to buy it; the appeal depends on the price, especially when holders of an $80 billion Lumentum would become holders of a $320 billion-plus Marvell growing 37%. x.com 

Lumentum's valuation echoes JDS Uniphase, half of which became Lumentum, because both rest on distant buildout expectations that may not materialize. If Lumentum hits estimates two years out and earnings then plateau, the valuation would be insane; only later years justify it, and JDSU also had rational forward multiples in the out years. @KairosPraxis counters that Lumentum has good contract visibility for two years, unlike JDSU's $100B value on $1B of revenue. x.com  x.com  x.com