Aluminum producers should benefit from higher prices after Iran's drone attack on a major aluminum plant in the United Arab Emirates. Alcoa is the biggest and most obvious buy, alongside Century Aluminum, Kaiser Aluminum and France's Constellium. x.com 

Alcoa is breaking out to a fresh 52-week high on heavy aluminum demand and a lack of supply. The breakout comes from a high rectangle, which per Bulkowski is the most reliable chart pattern for completing to target. The price target is 80. x.com 

Alcoa looks cheap against its earnings, at 10x trailing and about 9x next year's versus the roughly 13x aluminum producers usually get. Applying 13x to next year's $5.80 EPS implies fair value of about $66-84, leaving shares about 25% below the low end. This read rests only on reported earnings and estimates, not fundamental work. x.com 

Copper, aluminum, Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto can climb to their 2008 supercycle highs, 4-5x current levels, as AI data centers and aerospace infrastructure such as SpaceX drive a capex cycle rivaling the 2000s China buildout, a Hugh Hendry call from his George Gammon interview. Per Hendry, aluminum is mispriced: no one can earn a competitive return on a new North American smelter at spot, so prices must multiply to fund the capacity US supply-chain decoupling needs. Accumulate on breakouts. … Show more

Glencore and Alcoa may be the miners to buy while selling most of the others, based on how commodities have performed year to date and since the start of the conflict. x.com 

Steel is in a strong bull market since the tariff-panic lows, driven by strong demand and a weakening US dollar. All metals are moving higher, though miners are hampered by higher oil prices. x.com 

Century Aluminum got two positive developments. Canada and the US failed to agree on cutting aluminum tariffs from 50% to 25%, keeping protection for US producers. Century's 6% interest in a Kentucky data center project is moving toward grid connection after Kentucky regulators approved TeraWulf's 482 MW power agreement, which TeraWulf says backs a 20-year Anthropic lease. x.com 

US large-cap equities face only bad and catastrophic outcomes, because the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz has created a physical oil shortage that headlines can't fix. Even if Trump ceded control to Iran, months of disruption would follow, as insurers need sovereign guarantees to underwrite an Iranian toll system. Structural inflation from the war should keep central banks paused and weaken businesses and consumers; a 2022-style path lower with relief rallies looks likely. x.com  x.com