Samantha LaDuc
Founder & Strategist of LaDucTrading, Cross-Asset Analysis
LyondellBasell and Dow have stayed in play because the war crippled their Middle East competition. Both were part of a bottom-fishing value rotation from November to February. Mosaic, by contrast, was hurt by the sulfur supply disruption: per @VladBastion, 44% of seaborne sulfur exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, so input costs spiked harder than fertilizer prices. x.com
Dow could gain share as the Strait of Hormuz closure cuts naphtha supply to Japanese photoresist makers, who hold over 90% share and rely on the Middle East for 40% of their naphtha. Dow has the largest PGME/PGMEA share at about 22%, full backward integration and spare Texas capacity; its CEO cites a positive margin inflection and surging orders. A quick reopening would reverse some uplift, but its cost edge is structural. Eastman, a purer play, is preferred; no parabolic run is expected. x.com
Eastman Chemical stands to gain utilization and pricing power as the Strait of Hormuz closure squeezes Japanese photoresist suppliers. They rely on the Middle East for 40% of naphtha and have warned Samsung and SK hynix of disruptions, while electronic-grade PGMEA prices are up 40–50%. Eastman makes semiconductor-specific PGMEA, expanded Texas purification in late 2025, and holds patents easing requalification. As a smaller, purer play than Dow it merits a premium, though no parabolic run. x.com
Dow has gone from forgotten chemical stock to the market's hottest shortage trade, as Strait of Hormuz risk lights a fire under the entire chemicals sector. x.com
US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com … Show more
US energy stocks EQT, EOG Resources, natural-gas producers and Exxon still deserve attention even at current levels, because the Iran conflict will last longer than the administration is communicating. Iran may have created a permanent toll booth for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving President Trump in a bind even if he backs down. @aleabitoreddit notes oil and LNG exporters could run further if tensions escalate. x.com
Food and fertilizer producers such as Darling Ingredients, Nutrien, Mosaic and CF Industries should benefit as the oil supply shock bottlenecks supply chains and cuts global production of essential materials. Lower production means a supply squeeze, and with valuations very low, that sets up a double repricing. Mosaic and CF have not run yet, and the narrative should continue whether the war stops or not. x.com
Oil's 14% plunge on the ceasefire is a chance to add energy, because a ceasefire is not a resolution and structural energy demand doesn't vanish. The Strait of Hormuz isn't open, Iran is demanding ships get permission to cross on a two-week clock, and WTI is still 44% above pre-war levels. The ceasefire bought time, not certainty, so the energy sector is worth buying near support around its 50-day moving average. x.com
AdvanSix is an under-the-radar way to profit from a Strait of Hormuz shutdown, because its US plants run on cheap domestic natural gas while overseas fertilizer and chemical rivals face soaring feedstock costs. The shutdown cuts off seaborne gas and fertilizer trade just as spring planting begins, when demand for its ammonium sulfate is inelastic. As European and Asian rivals cut output, AdvanSix can take share at peak prices. Per the WSJ, reducing the Iran threat could take a month or more. … Show more
