Matthew Tuttle
CEO & CIO of Tuttle Capital Management, Publisher of Daily H.E.A.T.
Oil's 14% plunge on the ceasefire is a chance to add energy, because a ceasefire is not a resolution and structural energy demand doesn't vanish. The Strait of Hormuz isn't open, Iran is demanding ships get permission to cross on a two-week clock, and WTI is still 44% above pre-war levels. The ceasefire bought time, not certainty, so the energy sector is worth buying near support around its 50-day moving average. x.com
Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.com
US energy stocks stand to benefit from the Strait of Hormuz closure. With Hormuz closed, energy stocks are open for business. x.com
US energy stocks face pressure as the US-Iran memorandum of understanding reopens the Strait of Hormuz and lifts the US naval blockade. WTI broke below $80 from near $87 and could head toward $70, as oil, Treasury yields and the dollar broke lower together. Energy was the hardest-hit sector, while airlines rallied on relief from fuel costs. Lower oil eases inflation expectations, with headline CPI at 4.2% but core only 2.9%, removing pressure for Fed hikes. x.com x.com
US energy stocks should catch a bid now that Iran's IRGC navy has closed the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely, effectively a blockade. About 20% of global oil supply moves through it, including crude from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE, with no alternative route for that volume. Tanker insurance should spike and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds weeks on stretched supply, pushing crude higher. Fertilizer and plastics costs get squeezed, complicating the Fed's inflation view. x.com … Show more
US energy stocks EQT, EOG Resources, natural-gas producers and Exxon still deserve attention even at current levels, because the Iran conflict will last longer than the administration is communicating. Iran may have created a permanent toll booth for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving President Trump in a bind even if he backs down. @aleabitoreddit notes oil and LNG exporters could run further if tensions escalate. x.com
The Trump-Xi meeting could bring lower US tariffs and Chinese help on oil, favouring import-dependent US consumer stocks over crude oil and energy stocks. In one possible swap, the US removes or lowers tariffs while China releases strategic petroleum reserves and pushes Iran toward a deal. That would help Wayfair, RH, Target, Dollar General, Best Buy, Dollar Tree and Walmart. Crude at $103-105 after a parabolic move already looks stretched at big resistance. x.com
US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com … Show more
Near-daily tanker attacks are keeping the oil glut away, with UKMTO issuing another maritime warning. x.com
US energy equities draw a skeptical response, with a sarcastic 'good luck with your energy thesis' to @PrognosticApex but no stated reason. x.com
Oil stocks are worth buying on any dip because this is the biggest energy crisis, and its shock wave has not yet reached the US. Some oil producers are hurt by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, so weakness can be company-specific, as @StockyPlatano's planned short of Occidental Petroleum suggests. x.com x.com
