3X Long Labubu
Long-Term Investor, Hobby Trader
The Trump-Xi meeting could bring lower US tariffs and Chinese help on oil, favouring import-dependent US consumer stocks over crude oil and energy stocks. In one possible swap, the US removes or lowers tariffs while China releases strategic petroleum reserves and pushes Iran toward a deal. That would help Wayfair, RH, Target, Dollar General, Best Buy, Dollar Tree and Walmart. Crude at $103-105 after a parabolic move already looks stretched at big resistance. x.comÂ
Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com x.comÂ
Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.comÂ
A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.comÂ
A Trump tweet over the weekend is expected to bring crude oil down. The call also anticipates a sharp bounce on Monday. x.comÂ
Crude oil faces near-term pressure as Trump said US-Iran talks were productive and pledged no strikes before the November 3 elections; Brent fell to $103.36. Supply risks persist, however, with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. x.comÂ
Crude oil's last cushion is gone as recovering demand squeezes constrained Middle East supply. Barclays puts China imports near pre-war levels at 10.5m b/d, India up 600,000 b/d year on year and Middle East flows at 84% of pre-war levels; US demand is recovering. After more than 500m barrels of inventory were drawn down, buyers are paying a $13/bbl premium for next-week cargoes over the front-month contract, versus under $4 a week into the war. x.comÂ
Crude oil now has more room to fall on a deal headline than to rise on the status quo, as Trump's rejection of Iran's seven-day Hormuz plan looks like a negotiating position, with negotiators due back this week and the Saudi foreign minister in Washington. The closed Strait put Brent back at $108 with Nov–Dec backwardation near $8. Speculators added shorts three weeks running, squeeze fuel above $100 if talks fail; a deal would leave about 101,828 contracts of net length as supply. x.com x.comÂ
Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.comÂ
US energy stocks stand to benefit from the Strait of Hormuz closure. With Hormuz closed, energy stocks are open for business. x.comÂ
Crude oil should calm as US-Iran de-escalation gathers real momentum. Trump says a peace deal is coming Sunday; Iran is playing its usual timeline games, but de-escalation would bring oil down and give markets the green light. x.comÂ
