A Trump tweet over the weekend is expected to bring crude oil down. The call also anticipates a sharp bounce on Monday. x.comÂ
Kevin Xu
Founder of AfterHour, CEO of Alpha
Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com x.comÂ
Crude oil looks set to punish late buyers. Sentiment feels like maximum pain for oil shorts, so the trade is to take the other side of it. x.com x.comÂ
A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.comÂ
Plummeting base costs and weaker demand from struggling economies abroad should push crude oil lower next year. The same forces will also weigh on many other commodities and services. x.comÂ
Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.comÂ
Crude oil looks set to rally sharply because yesterday's Russia-Ukraine deal was not the price-lowering move expected before the midterms. Trump's plans are unclear, but the anticipated pre-election relief now seems less likely; premium gasoline cost over $5 at one Texas pump yesterday. Middle East peace could still avert the rally. x.com x.comÂ
Energy stocks enter the week bullish after the president announced a great oil deal and crude gapped up, a move worth noting for its future impact. The view covers broad energy and exploration-and-production funds, refiners Marathon Petroleum, PBF Energy and Valero, drillers Transocean, Helmerich & Payne and Valaris, and service companies NESR and SLB. x.comÂ
Another interest-rate hike this year should bring crude oil prices down. The call responds to Fed official John Williams saying one more hike is appropriate this year. x.comÂ
Oil looks set to rise in the short term because Trump is likely to introduce complications during the intended two-week ceasefire. Funding on Hyperliquid is -700%, and most of those positioned against oil have to be wrong. This is a modest, short-term hedge given how unpredictable Trump is. x.com x.comÂ
Crude oil should calm as US-Iran de-escalation gathers real momentum. Trump says a peace deal is coming Sunday; Iran is playing its usual timeline games, but de-escalation would bring oil down and give markets the green light. x.comÂ