Who's going to carry the logs
Swing Trader
Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.comÂ
Extreme bullishness about an oil shortage is a warning because oil has tended to return to around $50 within 12-18 months after such talk. Calls for a 'great oil repricing' appeared today, though they may not be widespread enough yet to mark the same setup. x.com x.comÂ
Oil looks set to rise in the short term because Trump is likely to introduce complications during the intended two-week ceasefire. Funding on Hyperliquid is -700%, and most of those positioned against oil have to be wrong. This is a modest, short-term hedge given how unpredictable Trump is. x.com x.comÂ
A Trump tweet over the weekend is expected to bring crude oil down. The call also anticipates a sharp bounce on Monday. x.comÂ
The oil trade is over because crude can no longer make higher highs, even with Middle East crude exports back near their peaks. Oil is trading around its average price of the last eight months and set a lower high in September, so it is only a matter of time before the market gives up. Crude looks about to fall through the floor, with rates following and high-beta stocks then going vertical as every dip gets bought. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.comÂ
Crude oil looks set for a pullback because energy is more overbought than 95% of sessions in two years while market stress is deteriorating. Defense and drone sectors that rallied on the same geopolitical thesis are already breaking down. IEA members are releasing a record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, and $1M of put spreads target a roughly 10% drop by mid-April. Oil also trades outside its Monte Carlo probability cone, though 8 of 9 models still say bullish. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com x.comÂ
A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.comÂ
Oil looks set to fall. x.comÂ