Crude oil looks set to punish late buyers. Sentiment feels like maximum pain for oil shorts, so the trade is to take the other side of it. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil looks set for a pullback because energy is more overbought than 95% of sessions in two years while market stress is deteriorating. Defense and drone sectors that rallied on the same geopolitical thesis are already breaking down. IEA members are releasing a record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, and $1M of put spreads target a roughly 10% drop by mid-April. Oil also trades outside its Monte Carlo probability cone, though 8 of 9 models still say bullish. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.com 

Extreme bullishness about an oil shortage is a warning because oil has tended to return to around $50 within 12-18 months after such talk. Calls for a 'great oil repricing' appeared today, though they may not be widespread enough yet to mark the same setup. x.com  x.com 

The oil trade is over because crude can no longer make higher highs, even with Middle East crude exports back near their peaks. Oil is trading around its average price of the last eight months and set a lower high in September, so it is only a matter of time before the market gives up. Crude looks about to fall through the floor, with rates following and high-beta stocks then going vertical as every dip gets bought. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil's slide on President Trump pausing strikes on Iran overlooks that supply fears have not eased, since Iran is not going to negotiate in good faith. x.com 

Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.com 

Oil is a sell as The Economist's latest cover signals a face-ripping rally in risk assets into year end. The trade is to sell oil and inflation and buy stocks and bonds: the same old boring long-beta trade. x.com 

Near-daily tanker attacks are keeping the oil glut away, with UKMTO issuing another maritime warning. x.com 

Oil's spike to $105 looks like a fear spike, not a structural repricing, as the futures curve shows. The market itself expects oil back in the low $80s by year-end. Oil and the S&P 500 rising together for the first time this year is only a one-day correlation break, not yet a regime change. x.com