Extreme bullishness about an oil shortage is a warning because oil has tended to return to around $50 within 12-18 months after such talk. Calls for a 'great oil repricing' appeared today, though they may not be widespread enough yet to mark the same setup. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil looks set to punish late buyers. Sentiment feels like maximum pain for oil shorts, so the trade is to take the other side of it. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.com 

Crude oil looks set for a pullback because energy is more overbought than 95% of sessions in two years while market stress is deteriorating. Defense and drone sectors that rallied on the same geopolitical thesis are already breaking down. IEA members are releasing a record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, and $1M of put spreads target a roughly 10% drop by mid-April. Oil also trades outside its Monte Carlo probability cone, though 8 of 9 models still say bullish. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

The oil trade is over because crude can no longer make higher highs, even with Middle East crude exports back near their peaks. Oil is trading around its average price of the last eight months and set a lower high in September, so it is only a matter of time before the market gives up. Crude looks about to fall through the floor, with rates following and high-beta stocks then going vertical as every dip gets bought. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oil now matters more for markets because the Fed is considering oil in its reaction function, no longer looking through supply shocks. Once the Fed reacts to oil, yields react to oil. x.com 

A Trump tweet over the weekend is expected to bring crude oil down. The call also anticipates a sharp bounce on Monday. x.com 

Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.com 

Crude oil looks more likely to rip through $100 given UBS's view that $100 oil won't hit the economy like the 1970s. Per UBS, oil spending is now 1.7% of US GDP versus 4.8% in 1974, with a similar decline in Europe, so supply disruptions would have a smaller macro impact. x.com 

Oil's spike to $105 looks like a fear spike, not a structural repricing, as the futures curve shows. The market itself expects oil back in the low $80s by year-end. Oil and the S&P 500 rising together for the first time this year is only a one-day correlation break, not yet a regime change. x.com