Crude oil's long historical correlation with gold and its lag behind gold make an oil catch-up to $200-$500 almost a lock. Oil-to-gold stands at 0.03 against a 75-plus-year upper range of 0.15; even a move to around 0.08 would mean oil rising 2-3 times against gold, gold falling 50%-66%, or both moving. Demand would probably hold up to around $300, though it could break closer to $500. Such a surge is not an outcome to cheer for. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oil demand will far outstrip supply regardless of alternative energy sources, driven by AI, reshoring, massive money expansion and global industrial growth. All energy sources will be needed to the max. x.com 

Extreme bullishness about an oil shortage is a warning because oil has tended to return to around $50 within 12-18 months after such talk. Calls for a 'great oil repricing' appeared today, though they may not be widespread enough yet to mark the same setup. x.com  x.com 

Oil is headed to $100 because damaged Middle East supply cannot come back quickly, even if US-Iran talks progress. About 7% of the world's oil supply is burning and shut down, and rebuilding those sites takes years, which undercuts Macquarie's call for a surplus before year-end on a US-Iran de-escalation. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more

Crude oil should keep moving lower even after the midterms, because 2027 economic projections point to lower inflation. Around $100, oil was a good short since policymakers wouldn't let it break out ahead of the midterms and risk voter confidence. Some volatility is likely at first. x.com 

Near-daily tanker attacks are keeping the oil glut away, with UKMTO issuing another maritime warning. x.com 

Oil could perk up some from here on Strait of Hormuz tensions, but the tail risk of a giant spike looks low. Both sides want to avoid a full restart of the war, and Saudi and UAE pipelines are moving a lot of oil. @FahadHandle remains concerned that shipping volume is still well below average and that a lasting closure would eventually force countries off strategic reserves into export bans and rationing. x.com 

Crude oil was never headed to $200 because Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent will do whatever it takes to contain it, though their main tool is running low. Markets rank AI and the Fed above the Iran conflict, which would only hurt them through sustained oil above $100-$110 or new highs. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases have engineered calm, but the SPR is getting dangerously low and the buffer shrinks each week the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil looks headed for $100+ as Middle East exports collapse. Supply is running 12 million barrels a day below 2025 levels. That points to higher gas prices, inflation that is not dead, no Fed cuts and another stock selloff. x.com