Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil faces near-term pressure as Trump said US-Iran talks were productive and pledged no strikes before the November 3 elections; Brent fell to $103.36. Supply risks persist, however, with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. x.com 

Oil faces an explosive move up, likely into the midterms, as the supports holding prices down run out. Satellite images do not show the ships Axios's Barak Ravid claims are transiting Hormuz, and false reports of barrels have kept prices down so far. Most strategic reserve releases by the US and other countries are done and cannot be extended at current levels; when they run out, a big reason prices are contained goes with them. x.com 

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil looks headed lower as tanker traffic through the strait nears pre-war levels and Trump makes cheaper oil a priority. Per CNN via @Osint613, the U.S. moved 40 tankers carrying about 18 million barrels through the strait on Tuesday, a daily record since the war began and only slightly below the pre-war 20 million. Once the Iran saga is over, oil will probably be cheaper than before the war. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil could still see a shock, possibly to $200. Per Tasnim via @HormuzLetter, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels, including tankers, in response to US strikes, and said any ship attempting transit will be attacked. @TheShortBear notes the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 349 million barrels and is drawing about 8 million a week, leaving roughly six weeks before the 300 million level widely seen as a panic trigger. x.com  x.com 

Extreme bullishness about an oil shortage is a warning because oil has tended to return to around $50 within 12-18 months after such talk. Calls for a 'great oil repricing' appeared today, though they may not be widespread enough yet to mark the same setup. x.com  x.com 

More oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz and continued OPEC and Russian production should push crude oil lower. It has fallen from about $106 to $96 over the past month. x.com 

Without a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz soon, energy inventories are weeks from bottoming, if they are not there already, which would spike oil to $150-200 and cause a deep global recession. President Trump told @nancycordes there is a draft agreement with Iran and the sides are getting a lot closer, but the Strait needs to open as soon as possible. x.com 

Crude oil is bearish if Trump leaves the war, because any flow through Hormuz beats today's zero and would add supply and lower prices outside the strait, whatever currency Iran forces it priced in. Given offsets such as the Saudi pipeline and strategic reserves, restoring 40-50% of pre-war Hormuz crude flow would be about as good as 100% for the market, at least until May. A replier argues spot prices imply an equilibrium near $150. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com