Crude oil could still see a shock, possibly to $200. Per Tasnim via @HormuzLetter, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels, including tankers, in response to US strikes, and said any ship attempting transit will be attacked. @TheShortBear notes the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 349 million barrels and is drawing about 8 million a week, leaving roughly six weeks before the 300 million level widely seen as a panic trigger. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more

Crude oil was never headed to $200 because Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent will do whatever it takes to contain it, though their main tool is running low. Markets rank AI and the Fed above the Iran conflict, which would only hurt them through sustained oil above $100-$110 or new highs. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases have engineered calm, but the SPR is getting dangerously low and the buffer shrinks each week the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. x.com  x.com 

Oil stays above $80 well past the midterms because the supply problem persists despite peace headlines. Ships are still attacked near Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the UAE; a reported US strike on Iran's Konarak Naval Base ended nearly seven weeks without US strikes. There is nobody in Iran who can sign a deal and end the conflict. x.com 

An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com 

Crude oil faces near-term pressure as Trump said US-Iran talks were productive and pledged no strikes before the November 3 elections; Brent fell to $103.36. Supply risks persist, however, with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. x.com 

Crude oil looks set to rally sharply because yesterday's Russia-Ukraine deal was not the price-lowering move expected before the midterms. Trump's plans are unclear, but the anticipated pre-election relief now seems less likely; premium gasoline cost over $5 at one Texas pump yesterday. Middle East peace could still avert the rally. x.com  x.com 

A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.com 

Crude oil looks headed lower as tanker traffic through the strait nears pre-war levels and Trump makes cheaper oil a priority. Per CNN via @Osint613, the U.S. moved 40 tankers carrying about 18 million barrels through the strait on Tuesday, a daily record since the war began and only slightly below the pre-war 20 million. Once the Iran saga is over, oil will probably be cheaper than before the war. x.com  x.com 

Oil transport and refining face renewed disruption risk, making crude oil look ready for another leg up. The Hormuz Letter relays an Iranian announcement that a tanker hit a naval mine while leaving the Strait of Hormuz; @news_9x says Ukraine vowed to destroy all Russian refineries. AP reports an official said a missile struck a passenger terminal in Riyadh. x.com