Daily attacks on Saudi energy installations, seemingly at will, are a bigger driver of oil's rise than Hormuz. If they escalate and meaningfully damage Saudi production, $200 oil isn't impossible. x.com 

Oil stays above $80 well past the midterms because the supply problem persists despite peace headlines. Ships are still attacked near Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the UAE; a reported US strike on Iran's Konarak Naval Base ended nearly seven weeks without US strikes. There is nobody in Iran who can sign a deal and end the conflict. x.com 

Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.com 

All three routes for Middle East oil out of the war zone shut within 72 hours, and the Fed cannot fix that. Strait of Hormuz traffic fell from over 130 ships a day before the war to 31, then zero. Iraqi drones hit pump stations on the Saudi East-West pipeline, leaving Riyadh five to seven days of crude stored at its end. In the Red Sea, a militia seized Mokha, Perim and the Hanish Islands and bars Saudi ships. Iran only needs to wait: America votes in 49 days, Iran not until 2028. x.com  x.com  … Show more

An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com 

Crude oil's geopolitical risk premium is bleeding out as Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline reopens. Piping crude straight to the Red Sea bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and vulnerable Gulf shipping lanes, removing a major supply bottleneck. That recovery erases the premium added after the September 10 attacks and stabilizes energy flows when macro markets needed it most. x.com 

The Strait of Hormuz situation looks bad for oil supply, because Iran has the leverage to keep control of it and collect tolls. Iranian drones have changed the equation despite substantial US air and naval power, there has been no uprising, and any ground invasion would take very long. Saudi Arabia and Qatar lack the naval muscle and rely on the US, and new pipelines take years, so affected countries will have to play ball for at least a few years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil looks set to rise sharply in the short term as Saudi supply disruptions worsen. Per @KobeissiLetter, citing Reuters, Saudi Arabia suspended loadings at Yanbu, its main Red Sea port exporting up to 5 million barrels a day, after attacks on its East-West pipeline, with Brent near $110. Per @HormuzLetter, Saudi Aramco cancelled its September European allocations, with no Saudi cargoes to Europe until November. The big move likely comes within the next couple of days. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Crude oil faces a return of the glut. Per @JavierBlas, the IEA's first look at 2027 sees too much oil again by this time next year, as Hormuz is expected to reopen, though the agency warns of higher-than-normal uncertainty in its supply and demand forecasts. x.com 

Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more