The Strait of Hormuz situation looks bad for oil supply, because Iran has the leverage to keep control of it and collect tolls. Iranian drones have changed the equation despite substantial US air and naval power, there has been no uprising, and any ground invasion would take very long. Saudi Arabia and Qatar lack the naval muscle and rely on the US, and new pipelines take years, so affected countries will have to play ball for at least a few years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil faces a structural repricing of energy risk, not a one-week spike, as both Saudi export routes are compromised at once. Drone strikes took out Petroline, the Hormuz bypass pipeline moving about 4 million barrels a day, while the Houthis seized Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait and Saudi output sits at a 30-year low. Brent rose 8.7% to $104.61 as the Fed hiked into it. Barrels stuck behind a strait are worth zero, favoring producers that avoid chokepoints. x.com 

Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.com 

Crude oil should reprice higher because the Iran conflict looks like a multi-year regime, not a short event, and no model carries a 2029 duration. The WSJ reported Vance and Rubio privately warned Trump it could last through his presidency, while the White House floats the biggest naval blockade in history. August PPI rose 5.4% year on year, above estimates, before any blockade effect. Houthis took Mocha and are moving on Bab al-Mandeb, with Brent above $100; $120 talk is the early repricing. … Show more

Crude oil looks set to rise sharply in the short term as Saudi supply disruptions worsen. Per @KobeissiLetter, citing Reuters, Saudi Arabia suspended loadings at Yanbu, its main Red Sea port exporting up to 5 million barrels a day, after attacks on its East-West pipeline, with Brent near $110. Per @HormuzLetter, Saudi Aramco cancelled its September European allocations, with no Saudi cargoes to Europe until November. The big move likely comes within the next couple of days. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Crude oil is bearish if Trump leaves the war, because any flow through Hormuz beats today's zero and would add supply and lower prices outside the strait, whatever currency Iran forces it priced in. Given offsets such as the Saudi pipeline and strategic reserves, restoring 40-50% of pre-war Hormuz crude flow would be about as good as 100% for the market, at least until May. A replier argues spot prices imply an equilibrium near $150. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Daily attacks on Saudi energy installations, seemingly at will, are a bigger driver of oil's rise than Hormuz. If they escalate and meaningfully damage Saudi production, $200 oil isn't impossible. x.com 

Oil stays above $80 well past the midterms because the supply problem persists despite peace headlines. Ships are still attacked near Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the UAE; a reported US strike on Iran's Konarak Naval Base ended nearly seven weeks without US strikes. There is nobody in Iran who can sign a deal and end the conflict. x.com 

Crude oil faces near-term pressure as Trump said US-Iran talks were productive and pledged no strikes before the November 3 elections; Brent fell to $103.36. Supply risks persist, however, with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. x.com 

Oil now matters more for markets because the Fed is considering oil in its reaction function, no longer looking through supply shocks. Once the Fed reacts to oil, yields react to oil. x.com