All three routes for Middle East oil out of the war zone shut within 72 hours, and the Fed cannot fix that. Strait of Hormuz traffic fell from over 130 ships a day before the war to 31, then zero. Iraqi drones hit pump stations on the Saudi East-West pipeline, leaving Riyadh five to seven days of crude stored at its end. In the Red Sea, a militia seized Mokha, Perim and the Hanish Islands and bars Saudi ships. Iran only needs to wait: America votes in 49 days, Iran not until 2028. x.com  x.com  … Show more

The Strait of Hormuz situation looks bad for oil supply, because Iran has the leverage to keep control of it and collect tolls. Iranian drones have changed the equation despite substantial US air and naval power, there has been no uprising, and any ground invasion would take very long. Saudi Arabia and Qatar lack the naval muscle and rely on the US, and new pipelines take years, so affected countries will have to play ball for at least a few years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil faces near-term pressure as Trump said US-Iran talks were productive and pledged no strikes before the November 3 elections; Brent fell to $103.36. Supply risks persist, however, with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. x.com 

Oil stays above $80 well past the midterms because the supply problem persists despite peace headlines. Ships are still attacked near Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the UAE; a reported US strike on Iran's Konarak Naval Base ended nearly seven weeks without US strikes. There is nobody in Iran who can sign a deal and end the conflict. x.com 

An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com 

Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.com 

Crude oil deserves far more long interest because the war is not stopping anytime soon; Iran reportedly hit another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. x.com 

A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.com 

Crude oil now has more room to fall on a deal headline than to rise on the status quo, as Trump's rejection of Iran's seven-day Hormuz plan looks like a negotiating position, with negotiators due back this week and the Saudi foreign minister in Washington. The closed Strait put Brent back at $108 with Nov–Dec backwardation near $8. Speculators added shorts three weeks running, squeeze fuel above $100 if talks fail; a deal would leave about 101,828 contracts of net length as supply. x.com  x.com 

Oil transport and refining face renewed disruption risk, making crude oil look ready for another leg up. The Hormuz Letter relays an Iranian announcement that a tanker hit a naval mine while leaving the Strait of Hormuz; @news_9x says Ukraine vowed to destroy all Russian refineries. AP reports an official said a missile struck a passenger terminal in Riyadh. x.com