All three routes for Middle East oil out of the war zone shut within 72 hours, and the Fed cannot fix that. Strait of Hormuz traffic fell from over 130 ships a day before the war to 31, then zero. Iraqi drones hit pump stations on the Saudi East-West pipeline, leaving Riyadh five to seven days of crude stored at its end. In the Red Sea, a militia seized Mokha, Perim and the Hanish Islands and bars Saudi ships. Iran only needs to wait: America votes in 49 days, Iran not until 2028. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Crude oil should reprice higher because the Iran conflict looks like a multi-year regime, not a short event, and no model carries a 2029 duration. The WSJ reported Vance and Rubio privately warned Trump it could last through his presidency, while the White House floats the biggest naval blockade in history. August PPI rose 5.4% year on year, above estimates, before any blockade effect. Houthis took Mocha and are moving on Bab al-Mandeb, with Brent above $100; $120 talk is the early repricing. … Show more

Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.com 

Oil is balanced on a very thin line between supply and demand, and the Iran conflict is a hostage standoff over 20% of the world's energy production. Nobody knows what happens next, but the situation looks extremely risky. A New York Post report on Iran conceding fails the sniff test, since that is Iran's only bargaining chip. The government is pushing oil down by shorting the front month, while the rest of the curve drifts rapidly higher. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oil stays above $80 well past the midterms because the supply problem persists despite peace headlines. Ships are still attacked near Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the UAE; a reported US strike on Iran's Konarak Naval Base ended nearly seven weeks without US strikes. There is nobody in Iran who can sign a deal and end the conflict. x.com 

Crude oil is bearish if Trump leaves the war, because any flow through Hormuz beats today's zero and would add supply and lower prices outside the strait, whatever currency Iran forces it priced in. Given offsets such as the Saudi pipeline and strategic reserves, restoring 40-50% of pre-war Hormuz crude flow would be about as good as 100% for the market, at least until May. A replier argues spot prices imply an equilibrium near $150. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil's price risk is to the upside as Iran keeps restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which also favors Chevron. Per a Wall Street Journal report cited by @spectatorindex, Iran told mediators it will continue to limit the number of ships allowed to cross and will charge tolls for the rest of the ceasefire. x.com 

Crude oil has a renewed risk premium now that the US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed. Three commercial ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the US blamed Iran and struck back two days in a row, and President Trump said the ceasefire is over. The Treasury also pulled its waiver on Iranian oil sales from July 17, and Brent spiked as much as 7% toward $80. Each past crack in the ceasefire spiked oil and eventually calmed down, but nobody knows which time it won't. x.com 

Crude oil's biggest bullish catalyst has disappeared with the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Per The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump said he cancelled a US attack on Iran and that the perimeters of a deal, including a total reopening of the strait, have been agreed. x.com 

Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more