The Strait of Hormuz situation looks bad for oil supply, because Iran has the leverage to keep control of it and collect tolls. Iranian drones have changed the equation despite substantial US air and naval power, there has been no uprising, and any ground invasion would take very long. Saudi Arabia and Qatar lack the naval muscle and rely on the US, and new pipelines take years, so affected countries will have to play ball for at least a few years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil should reprice higher because the Iran conflict looks like a multi-year regime, not a short event, and no model carries a 2029 duration. The WSJ reported Vance and Rubio privately warned Trump it could last through his presidency, while the White House floats the biggest naval blockade in history. August PPI rose 5.4% year on year, above estimates, before any blockade effect. Houthis took Mocha and are moving on Bab al-Mandeb, with Brent above $100; $120 talk is the early repricing. … Show more

Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.com 

Oil is balanced on a very thin line between supply and demand, and the Iran conflict is a hostage standoff over 20% of the world's energy production. Nobody knows what happens next, but the situation looks extremely risky. A New York Post report on Iran conceding fails the sniff test, since that is Iran's only bargaining chip. The government is pushing oil down by shorting the front month, while the rest of the curve drifts rapidly higher. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com  … Show more

Crude oil's biggest bullish catalyst has disappeared with the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Per The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump said he cancelled a US attack on Iran and that the perimeters of a deal, including a total reopening of the strait, have been agreed. x.com 

Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more

Crude oil has a renewed risk premium now that the US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed. Three commercial ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the US blamed Iran and struck back two days in a row, and President Trump said the ceasefire is over. The Treasury also pulled its waiver on Iranian oil sales from July 17, and Brent spiked as much as 7% toward $80. Each past crack in the ceasefire spiked oil and eventually calmed down, but nobody knows which time it won't. x.com 

Crude oil looks set to fall as Persian Gulf exports recover. Per The Kobeissi Letter, Gulf crude exports topped 14 million barrels per day last week for the first time since the Iran War began on February 28, up over 210% from the March low and back to about 80% of pre-war levels, as the US military secures the Strait of Hormuz with a shipping corridor along Oman. If that holds true, the bearish oil view pays off. x.com 

Crude oil deserves far more long interest because the war is not stopping anytime soon; Iran reportedly hit another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. x.com