Rawl
Crypto Investor, Macro Analysis
Crude oil should keep moving lower even after the midterms, because 2027 economic projections point to lower inflation. Around $100, oil was a good short since policymakers wouldn't let it break out ahead of the midterms and risk voter confidence. Some volatility is likely at first. x.comÂ
Crude oil staying at current levels, or rising, is breaking the oil-down, inflation-down, markets-up thesis and keeps inflation sticky into the midterms. A new short is still preferred on a better setup, because oil should not break above $100; if it does, an energy crisis arrives earlier than expected. x.comÂ
Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com x.comÂ
Crude oil's mid-term trend should turn lower sooner or later, a shift that would line up with a final ceasefire deal. Despite short-term volatility, prices are still distributing around the higher-timeframe resistance that marked the 2022 macro top. x.comÂ
A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.comÂ
Plummeting base costs and weaker demand from struggling economies abroad should push crude oil lower next year. The same forces will also weigh on many other commodities and services. x.comÂ
Crude oil faces near-term pressure as Trump said US-Iran talks were productive and pledged no strikes before the November 3 elections; Brent fell to $103.36. Supply risks persist, however, with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. x.comÂ
Oil traders anticipate a resumption of the Iran war after the midterm elections, favoring more upside for crude oil. After a bullish reversal off its 10-week moving average, the odds favor a continuation of the rally to the $110-120 range. x.comÂ
The oil trade is over because crude can no longer make higher highs, even with Middle East crude exports back near their peaks. Oil is trading around its average price of the last eight months and set a lower high in September, so it is only a matter of time before the market gives up. Crude looks about to fall through the floor, with rates following and high-beta stocks then going vertical as every dip gets bought. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com x.comÂ
Crude oil should stay elevated into the US midterm elections because Iran is likely trying to keep prices high until then, based on its IRNA briefings. The midterms are 49 days away. x.comÂ
Crude oil will probably drop again as it retests the underside of its highs. Oil bounced off a key level just as geopolitical tensions resumed, and its moves track chart levels, with news arriving to fit them, until it reaches the next key level and bounces. x.comÂ
