The oil trade is over because crude can no longer make higher highs, even with Middle East crude exports back near their peaks. Oil is trading around its average price of the last eight months and set a lower high in September, so it is only a matter of time before the market gives up. Crude looks about to fall through the floor, with rates following and high-beta stocks then going vertical as every dip gets bought. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.com 

Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil's mid-term trend should turn lower sooner or later, a shift that would line up with a final ceasefire deal. Despite short-term volatility, prices are still distributing around the higher-timeframe resistance that marked the 2022 macro top. x.com 

Renewed Ukraine and Iran tensions should push oil higher again. The Kobeissi Letter reports a Ukrainian strike on a major Russian oil terminal. Higher oil adds to last week's financing worries; even slight earnings weakness in the next few weeks could be disastrous for markets. A rally at the open would not surprise, though, as headlines shift quickly. x.com 

Crude oil should keep moving lower even after the midterms, because 2027 economic projections point to lower inflation. Around $100, oil was a good short since policymakers wouldn't let it break out ahead of the midterms and risk voter confidence. Some volatility is likely at first. x.com 

Extreme bullishness about an oil shortage is a warning because oil has tended to return to around $50 within 12-18 months after such talk. Calls for a 'great oil repricing' appeared today, though they may not be widespread enough yet to mark the same setup. x.com  x.com 

A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.com 

Crude oil looks set to fall as Persian Gulf exports recover. Per The Kobeissi Letter, Gulf crude exports topped 14 million barrels per day last week for the first time since the Iran War began on February 28, up over 210% from the March low and back to about 80% of pre-war levels, as the US military secures the Strait of Hormuz with a shipping corridor along Oman. If that holds true, the bearish oil view pays off. x.com