Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.com 

Crude oil's geopolitical risk premium is fading fast after an official US-Iran joint statement from Switzerland, backed by Qatar and Pakistan. It sets a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal, a direct Hormuz communication channel, partial release of frozen Iranian assets and eased oil and petrochemical export restrictions. Oil erased its recent gains as US futures jumped. x.com 

Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.com 

Oil looks set to fall whichever way the Iran war goes. If it escalates, the US takes over Iran's oil; if it de-escalates, the US says Iran wants to talk. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil prices look set to be kept down, as that is the real message of the latest policy signal. x.com 

Crude oil stays elevated as long as there is no deal with Iran, feeding a vicious cycle in which higher oil keeps inflation sticky and pushes rates higher, breaking the bond market. To bring yields down, Trump must either convince the market oil flows are normal or end the war. x.com 

A Trump tweet over the weekend is expected to bring crude oil down. The call also anticipates a sharp bounce on Monday. x.com 

Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com  x.com 

A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.com 

Israel's and the US's upcoming elections may discourage further escalation, opening a path to peace and a sharp drop in oil if the war cools. Israel votes October 27 and the US November 3; lower oil would give crypto room to recover. x.com