Prof
Macro & Equity Commentary, Risk & Market Psychology
Energy stocks enter the week bullish after the president announced a great oil deal and crude gapped up, a move worth noting for its future impact. The view covers broad energy and exploration-and-production funds, refiners Marathon Petroleum, PBF Energy and Valero, drillers Transocean, Helmerich & Payne and Valaris, and service companies NESR and SLB. x.comÂ
Oil stocks breaking out signals what is coming on the war front. Last week every major oil stock, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Suncor, set higher lows and then broke out. Energy may stay hot for the next few months as the war winds down through talks while inflation spikes higher. x.com x.comÂ
Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.comÂ
A Trump tweet over the weekend is expected to bring crude oil down. The call also anticipates a sharp bounce on Monday. x.comÂ
US energy stocks face pressure as the US-Iran memorandum of understanding reopens the Strait of Hormuz and lifts the US naval blockade. WTI broke below $80 from near $87 and could head toward $70, as oil, Treasury yields and the dollar broke lower together. Energy was the hardest-hit sector, while airlines rallied on relief from fuel costs. Lower oil eases inflation expectations, with headline CPI at 4.2% but core only 2.9%, removing pressure for Fed hikes. x.com x.comÂ
US energy stocks such as Valero are resuming their uptrend after a brief ceasefire correction because the US is draining reserves at an incredibly fast pace to keep oil and gasoline flowing and stop prices from spiraling. x.comÂ
US energy stocks stand to benefit from the Strait of Hormuz closure. With Hormuz closed, energy stocks are open for business. x.comÂ
The Trump-Xi meeting could bring lower US tariffs and Chinese help on oil, favouring import-dependent US consumer stocks over crude oil and energy stocks. In one possible swap, the US removes or lowers tariffs while China releases strategic petroleum reserves and pushes Iran toward a deal. That would help Wayfair, RH, Target, Dollar General, Best Buy, Dollar Tree and Walmart. Crude at $103-105 after a parabolic move already looks stretched at big resistance. x.comÂ
Oil looks set to rise in the short term because Trump is likely to introduce complications during the intended two-week ceasefire. Funding on Hyperliquid is -700%, and most of those positioned against oil have to be wrong. This is a modest, short-term hedge given how unpredictable Trump is. x.com x.comÂ
US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com … Show more
Oil-related stocks will be hit hard over the coming months and the next year, so it is way too early to buy them. Only later, in the next cycle, will oil-related stocks, including oil service names, do very well. A follower summarizing the call describes oil falling first, then rising toward 500 in the following cycle. x.com x.comÂ
Crude oil looks set for a pullback because energy is more overbought than 95% of sessions in two years while market stress is deteriorating. Defense and drone sectors that rallied on the same geopolitical thesis are already breaking down. IEA members are releasing a record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, and $1M of put spreads target a roughly 10% drop by mid-April. Oil also trades outside its Monte Carlo probability cone, though 8 of 9 models still say bullish. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
