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Retail Investor, AI Hardware Supply-Chain Research
A Nasdaq listing is Sivers' top priority because it would make the stock eligible for ETFs such as Roundhill's planned Photonics & Optics ETF. As a US OTC stock it lacks liquidity and likely fails major-exchange listing requirements; a Nasdaq listing would bring in US institutional money, lift volume past index liquidity thresholds and satisfy nearly all Roundhill indexes' exchange-listing rules. x.comÂ
Sivers could become a core multi-year supplier on Apple's roadmap if Apple Watch adds noninvasive blood-glucose monitoring, which needs precise near- or mid-infrared lasers that are Sivers' DFB strength. Apple lost its Rockley Photonics laser source, and @aleabitoreddit sees glucose as Apple's next cycle around 2027-2028. At 20% of 40-50M watches and $5-10 per laser, that is $40-80M of revenue versus $25M in 2025. Jabil's 1.6T qualifications could also bring mass production by late 2026. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors is undervalued because its photonics subsidiary's valuation potential is likely grossly mispriced, though that unit deserves a hefty discount until listed. Sivers Photonics failed to list via a SPAC in 2024, even early in the AI boom; the main wireless business is boring; and unlisted subsidiaries trade at deep discounts until holders see a path to monetization. Per @aleabitoreddit, Sivers, a laser maker for hyperscaler photonic supply chains, is valued at only about $200M. … Show more
US institutions accumulating Sivers Semiconductors into a tiny float, with a Nasdaq dual-listing vote on the horizon, is a clear signal. Per @aleabitoreddit, BlackRock has entered as a passive owner after an index listing and Fidelity Research has started direct positions, following JPMorgan's build from small positions to about 5.25% of the company, which @aleabitoreddit reads as US institutions validating Sivers's position in photonics. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors' break-even hurdle puts market expectations far beyond what it can realistically deliver in the next 12 months. Revenue would need to multiply several times just to break even, before further R&D or foundry expansion spending. Its recent cash raise means near-term dilution is not expected, but much of the cash will go toward the foundry as quarterly losses continue. Hype could still lift the stock without improving the fundamentals, leaving huge short-term risk. x.com x.comÂ
Sivers is less exposed to tighter AI financing because its 700M SEK raise funds a buildout largely reliant on external foundries. It is qualifying with Ayar, Jabil, GlobalFoundries and O-Net for potential tier-one hyperscaler pluggable, CPO and NPO deployments. Higher rates may strain neoclouds needing billions for GPUs, but optical content and aggregate demand should still rise even if hyperscaler AI capex falls, especially as new players start qualification. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors is drawing growing US interest, which is bullish: JPMorgan has followed Deutsche Bank in filing a Form F-6EF for a Sivers ADR, per @Sofigoodboy. x.comÂ
Sivers still looks unrealistically expensive even though the optical market's TAM has grown far more. Plugging the Goldman Sachs photonics report into models still leaves it overvalued. x.comÂ
Aeva's move into NPO/CPO is highly bullish for Sivers, again at the center of photonics through its CW-DFB lasers. Sivers is regarded as Aeva's laser supplier, and Aeva signed a joint development deal with an optical engine maker for a major hyperscaler, deploying in 2H27 and ramping in 2028. Per @ParadisLabs, Sivers partner GlobalFoundries expects silicon photonics revenue to more than double in 2026, with NPO ramping in 2027 and CPO in 2028. Jane Street closed its Sivers short. x.com x.com … Show more
Sivers Semiconductors is crossing from an engineering and NRE model to a product-led component model, a shift that earns very different multiples. FY2025 revenue rose 25% to SEK304.1m, product revenue reached SEK85.7m (about 28% of sales), and it entered 2026 with a $453m non-binding pipeline. Wireless is the nearer-term, more de-risked engine; photonics for AI interconnects carries larger long-duration upside. The risk is that losses and negative cash flow dilute equity before products scale. … Show more
Sivers Semiconductors' AI optics rally prices in more than its photonics business has shown. About 75% of revenue is still wireless mmWave. Its 50-75mW CW lasers suit 400G and 800G but trail tier-1 rivals, making it a tier-2 spillover supplier like Applied Optoelectronics. Its small, old Glasgow fab has $50-150 million of potential laser revenue, with no sign of major expansion. Its multi-wavelength laser arrays for CPO are pre-revenue as Nvidia and Broadcom build their own. x.comÂ
Tema Photonics & Optical ETF offers a way to hold a range of optical companies without trading the volatile individual names. Its roughly 9% exposure to an Anthropic SPV adds to the appeal. The ETF is thinly traded; the idea is to buy and hold for a year rather than keep trading. x.com x.comÂ
