Financial stocks will deliver strong earnings even as rates fall, because deregulation and rising loan demand help them. Previous cycles show financials perform well when rates drop. x.com
David Hunter
Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors
Financial stocks are probably the best place to be right now, because banks make a lot of money when rates go up, which most people do not realize. x.com
US financials could lead the market into year-end if the Fed signals at the upcoming FOMC that rates will stay higher for longer, as expected. The financial sector is breaking out on the weekly chart, and banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are quietly reclaiming trend and pushing toward new highs. x.com
Bank earnings season may mark peak earnings for financials, opening a path for the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund to retest its 4Q21 peak near $40. Cycle indicators turned in 4Q25, when the 3-month Treasury yield broke its monthly 50-period moving average, so the market should start treating current earnings as a peak. The fund peaked in January 2026 and has dropped below its monthly 20-period average, opening a retest of the 50-period average. Whether it plays out remains to be seen. x.com
Rate-hike fears are dragging down the whole lending sector, making Figure Technology look like a bargain around $25. That sector selloff could offer an opportunity over the next few months. x.com
Bank stocks look buyable if systematic selling is reacting to a flatter yield curve: the front end that drives earnings has barely moved. JPMorgan and Citi card spending rose 10% and 13%, and Citi and Wells Fargo reported lower credit losses. Wells expects steady margins and improving interest income as loans grow and old fixed-rate assets roll into higher yields. Funds crowded into banks before results, limiting near-term buyers. x.com
The big six US banks should report great Q2 results as the front line of a solid economy. Net interest income, fee growth, steady credit trends and capital levels all look supportive, and valuations remain cheap, leaving opportunities to add. x.com
US consumer cyclicals and broad market breadth look set to gain as Q2 bank results refute the K-shaped consumer doom thesis. Card spending rose 9% to 12% at JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi and Wells Fargo while credit quality improved: JPMorgan's card net charge-off rate fell to 3.34% from 3.47% and it cut full-year guidance, and Wells Fargo's credit-loss provision fell 9%. With rate tailwinds and falling gas, retail, transports, regional banks and equal-weight stocks signal a cyclical rotation. … Show more
High Treasury yields keep US real-estate stocks from being a buy yet, despite a record low against the S&P 500. Each hike pushes the sector lower; the 10-year yield above 5% argues for waiting rather than assuming rotation is inevitable. A turn likely needs falling rates, perhaps a first cut or the 10-year back below 4%. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Dave has the best valuation among online banking and consumer lending peers such as Affirm, SoFi and Ally, and its large base sets it up for a big breakout: the bigger the base, the bigger the breakout. x.com
Big banks' negative earnings reactions leave regional banks looking likely to continue lower. Regionals were a leading bear sector in many previous negative markets, including the 2025 bear market and the early-2023 regional banking crisis. x.com