Gublo
Small/Mid-Cap Trader, Multibagger/Penny Stocks, Earnings Analysis & Signals
Figure Technology Solutions looks very cheap because VCs may be selling early stakes and funds may be taking tax losses ahead of their October year-end. x.comÂ
Limited access to capital could help Figure's SMB HELOC channel outperform expectations. It has already performed better than almost anyone expected. Figure says more than 150 partners embedded its home-equity technology in 16 months, funding $135 million in business-purpose HELOCs in Q3 2026 alone. Figure's fair value is $35-$40 right now. x.com x.comÂ
Inflation and interest-rate fears, not an AI slowdown, are driving the selloff in AI stocks. The market and Fed are reacting wrongly to AI's rapid growth and value creation. Apart from year-end tax-loss harvesting, there is no reason to sell; this should pass and holders should come out stronger than ever. x.com x.comÂ
Small caps, housing stocks and unprofitable tech that ran on rate-cut hopes face a sharp repricing, as odds of a rate hike at the Fed's July 29 meeting tripled in a week. Oil surged near $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, new global tariffs lifted inflation expectations and the 10-year yield hit 4.71%. A Wells Fargo strategist said the Fed may need to hike more and faster than expected. With consumers already fragile, a hike would reprice small caps overnight. x.comÂ
The Fed's September 16 quarter-point hike affects the high-moat portfolio differently from the simple picture of borrowers paying more. Bond-rating companies are having record quarters because the AI building boom keeps borrowing whatever rates do, while brokers that should win get only a small bump. The real damage falls on home loans and on the price investors will pay today for profits far in the future, which is where most of the portfolio sits. x.comÂ
Figure Technology Solutions is nearly impossible to be bearish on because of how Mike Cagney runs it. Revenue is growing more than 100% year over year and EBITDA grew over 50% in the same period. The lesson is to never bet against Cagney. x.comÂ
Hallador Energy faces a near-term sentiment headwind because hot CPI raises the odds of rate hikes for rate-sensitive plays. The morning's move looks overdone, but the pressure on sentiment could persist for a while. x.comÂ
Upstart has no AI underwriting moat; it is simply winning fewer personal-loan customers in a higher-rate environment while spending heavily. Originations rose 61% to $3.4 billion on auto (+300%) and home (+250%) with personal loans flat, but it returned to a GAAP net loss as contribution margin fell to 50% from 55% and operating expenses rose 45% to about $316 million. If the 10-year stays above 4.4%, a 55x P/E faces brutal valuation gravity, though hitting the $294M EBITDA guide would help. … Show more
SoFi raised revenue guidance even while now expecting two rate hikes in 2026, signaling confidence in execution in any rate environment, so the stock's decline is a buying opportunity. Last quarter it held guidance as its rate outlook worsened. Per CEO Anthony Noto, Q2 brought record adjusted net revenue of $1.2 billion, 40% revenue growth, a 30% EBITDA margin, 1.1 million new members and a record 2.2 million new products. The stock looks deeply undervalued, and execution should close that gap. … Show more
PAR Technology is caught in the market's selloff of highly leveraged businesses as rates have risen, sold alongside names like Dentsply Sirona, Shift4, Cogent and Papa John's this month. Its ability to stay relevant in an AI world also remains unproven. x.comÂ