Crossroads
Retail Investor, YouTube Investing Creator
Limited access to capital could help Figure's SMB HELOC channel outperform expectations. It has already performed better than almost anyone expected. Figure says more than 150 partners embedded its home-equity technology in 16 months, funding $135 million in business-purpose HELOCs in Q3 2026 alone. Figure's fair value is $35-$40 right now. x.com x.comÂ
Figure Connect's access to securitization and whole-loan buyers helps sustain liquidity despite higher rates. Per chairman Mike Cagney, Figure sold over $2.1 billion through those channels since the Fed raised rates in mid-September. Figure remains the top investment idea for 2027 despite rate hikes: its growth exceeds 100% year on year and could persist for at least six quarters. Securitization collateral rose, as did weighted delinquencies. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rate-hike fears are dragging down the whole lending sector, making Figure Technology look like a bargain around $25. That sector selloff could offer an opportunity over the next few months. x.comÂ
Figure Technology Solutions looks very cheap because VCs may be selling early stakes and funds may be taking tax losses ahead of their October year-end. x.comÂ
Better Home & Finance is now the favorite lending tech company, even over Upstart, though riskier because it is still very early. Its HELOC with a credit card turns home equity into a revolving credit line, making borrowers long-term customers and generating fees, and a Coinbase partnership lets borrowers use bitcoin or USDC as loan collateral. It grows at 40% yet trades at half Upstart's valuation, with fair value estimated at $40-50. x.comÂ
Figure seems among the best positioned for tokenization: after a recent meeting with its CEO, tokenized credit and equity appear squarely in its focus and seem to be its long-term bet. Its shares not running on Citrini's new tokenization piece is surprising. x.comÂ
Opendoor's improving unit economics could create operating leverage when housing recovers. It could be one of 2026's most interesting speculative turnarounds. Q2 contribution profit rose 59% sequentially to $51 million, margin reached 4.8%, and profit per home sold rose about $5,000 to $22,000. It still has an adjusted EBITDA loss; mortgage rates, inventory and dilution threaten returns. The coming quarters must prove sustainable profits and shareholder value, not just volume. x.comÂ
Figure is a very slept-on asset given 113% year-over-year net revenue growth and 55% EBITDA margins in Q2. Its weekly marketplace volume hit an all-time high of $436M, per @AllenBinLi, and that does not even include the Kiavi acquisition. x.comÂ
Figure Technology Solutions is nearly impossible to be bearish on because of how Mike Cagney runs it. Revenue is growing more than 100% year over year and EBITDA grew over 50% in the same period. The lesson is to never bet against Cagney. x.comÂ
Propel Holdings keeps executing quietly while the market looks elsewhere, with strong growth, an expanding fintech lending platform and shareholder returns, at a valuation many investors may be overlooking. x.comÂ
Pagaya looks mispriced at $12: the AI lending platform just closed a $600M AAA-rated ABS deal, so the bond market sees what the stock market doesn't. Citizens reiterated Outperform with a $22 price target. x.comÂ
Upstart has no AI underwriting moat; it is simply winning fewer personal-loan customers in a higher-rate environment while spending heavily. Originations rose 61% to $3.4 billion on auto (+300%) and home (+250%) with personal loans flat, but it returned to a GAAP net loss as contribution margin fell to 50% from 55% and operating expenses rose 45% to about $316 million. If the 10-year stays above 4.4%, a 55x P/E faces brutal valuation gravity, though hitting the $294M EBITDA guide would help. … Show more
