Matthew Sigel
Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, Portfolio Manager of NODE ETF
Figure's Q3 loan volume looks on track for the top of guidance rather than below Street estimates. Its weekly dashboard showed $4.5B quarter to date as of Sept. 20 against a $4.8B-$5.2B guide; adding Debloc's $422M for last week and about $85M a day for the remaining days brings it to roughly $5.17B. Kiavi adds about $580M a month and one month of it is excluded from the guide. Volumes remain a worry given recent rate moves and housing data, though HELOC volumes have held up. x.com x.comÂ
Rate-hike fears are dragging down the whole lending sector, making Figure Technology look like a bargain around $25. That sector selloff could offer an opportunity over the next few months. x.comÂ
Limited access to capital could help Figure's SMB HELOC channel outperform expectations. It has already performed better than almost anyone expected. Figure says more than 150 partners embedded its home-equity technology in 16 months, funding $135 million in business-purpose HELOCs in Q3 2026 alone. Figure's fair value is $35-$40 right now. x.com x.comÂ
Figure Technology Solutions is nearly impossible to be bearish on because of how Mike Cagney runs it. Revenue is growing more than 100% year over year and EBITDA grew over 50% in the same period. The lesson is to never bet against Cagney. x.comÂ
Figure Technology looks underpriced at just 21x 2027 estimated earnings despite 113% revenue growth, a 55% adjusted EBITDA margin and a 39% net margin. The "Hypoport of America" trades like a crypto token; a fair P/E of 28 implies roughly 51% annual return potential. x.comÂ
Fundrise Innovation Fund trades at about $163, far above a net asset value of roughly $60-70. Marked at current valuations, its stakes in Anthropic, SpaceX, Databricks, Epic Games and others put NAV above $60, not the $20-30 suggested in a post the author replies to. The October unlock of a large amount of shares matters, though many holders may hold through year-end to qualify for long-term gains and defer taxes. x.com x.comÂ
The Trade Desk is likely to stay in the penalty box for a while because its shareholder base is so burned. With nearly everyone underwater heading into tax-loss selling, pressure looks immense, and after accounting for stock-based compensation and operating cash flow, a fall to $7-9 would make sense on valuation. It could eventually work and re-rate, as busted 2021 SPACs and growth stocks did after 2-3 sideways years, but even speculators should wait. x.comÂ
Upcoming SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will probably pull liquidity out of Microsoft, Meta, software stocks and tax-loss-harvesting losers. A post the author quotes argues those listings over the next few months must draw money away from junkier stocks right after a big speculative run-up, and that it may be time to size up shorts. x.comÂ
Cerebras shares face selling pressure as a sizable unlock hits its tiny float. Per the prospectus, about 28 million Class A shares held by directors, officers and non-employee holders become tradable on the second trading day after Tuesday's earnings, only about three months after listing. With IPOs coming years later, VC and PE backers collect the gains while retail becomes exit liquidity, needing seven years of 70% revenue growth to justify the valuation. x.com x.comÂ