Prepared Remarks
Equity Investor, Macro Commentary
Upcoming SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will probably pull liquidity out of Microsoft, Meta, software stocks and tax-loss-harvesting losers. A post the author quotes argues those listings over the next few months must draw money away from junkier stocks right after a big speculative run-up, and that it may be time to size up shorts. x.com
Microsoft's position is the most crowded among the Magnificent Seven, and fund flows are against it as funds sell those stocks to reserve cash for Anthropic's IPO. It faded despite an excellent earnings report. x.com
AI's threat to incumbent tech makes SpaceX the preferred investment for the next decade. AI has begun taking business from Google, with Amazon and Apple next; Microsoft's 27% workforce reduction program signals desperation. x.com
Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com x.com
Fresh funding for AI expansion supports a continued bid for AI stocks as compute spending shows no sign of slowing. Meta committed to $95B in shareholder dilution for AI, Anthropic is set to have $200B in cash in a couple of weeks, and SpaceX got a $40B Apollo loan solely to buy more Nvidia GPUs. The Anthropic IPO might even be a positive catalyst rather than the negative one many fear. x.com
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.com
Meta's established post-earnings rebound pattern makes its latest selloff a buying opportunity. Blowout results have been followed by an unexplained stock drop and then a rally; without SpaceX, this would be the best buying opportunity in the market. x.com
SpaceX needs new company equity because the math for its 20 GW plans does not work otherwise. A possible Tesla merger would take too long for its KPIs, even as SpaceX is beating CoreWeave and Cerebras. A huge primary offering by SpaceX, Meta or Alphabet ahead of Anthropic's IPO is considered nearly certain, though the issuer is uncertain. x.com x.com x.com
Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com x.com
Microsoft's OpenAI exposure is a very good reason to keep it alongside Anthropic exposure through Alphabet and Amazon. The prior thought of reducing or exiting Microsoft has given way to a tentative hold, with no plans to add for now. x.com
Anthropic's compute commitments make SpaceX a major cash cow. Per Sawyer Merritt, Anthropic's IPO filing projects up to $120.5 billion in spending under SpaceXAI agreements through 2029, reaching about $3.1 billion monthly once capacity is delivered in December 2026. Either party can cancel after the initial periods end in early 2027 with 90 days' notice. x.com
