Renewed inflation raises the risk of a December rate hike and downside for the Nasdaq 100. Per Wall St Engine, core PCE reached 3.1% year over year, up from 3.0%, and rose 0.3% month over month, up from 0.2% previously. CPI, PPI and PCE are all rising again; a December hike is the bet. x.com 

High debt and rate hikes make a big US equity correction likely. Warsh said nothing useful despite hot CPI and PPI after two weeks of hawkish rhetoric, while the rest of the Fed fence-sits. A debt crisis is incoming, and some funds will blow up soon. Big caps are the last leg; the bigger correction could be something like 20%. It is not a good time to buy dips. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hallador Energy looks worse because management accepted toxic financing on top of its inability to operate the power plant. Even if it sells its turbines, management will probably wait until after the turbine market collapses. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long bonds face renewed downside if Warsh turns dovish amid an energy shock that is likely only beginning. Hot CPI and PPI are not one-offs: oil tankers take two months to arrive, with further refining, manufacturing and distribution delays. A dovish Fed amid those prints will quickly send the 10-year yield to 6%. If Warsh softens tonight, long bonds will erase this week's gains and probably retest lows quickly; he is expected to sound even more hawkish than at Jackson Hole. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hotter-than-expected inflation is pressuring the Nasdaq as yields rise. September CPI reached 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast; hot oil, rising rates and the active Iran war accompanied the Nasdaq's 2% drop. The Nasdaq also failed to hold 745. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rate-hike fears are dragging down the whole lending sector, making Figure Technology look like a bargain around $25. That sector selloff could offer an opportunity over the next few months. x.com 

Energy's continued push on inflation is concerning for the S&P 500. Energy's strength relative to SPY looks very similar to the start of the 2021-22 inflation bear market, when repeated closes above the 50-week average preceded a surge. Last week's close above the five-week average echoes March 2026. x.com 

Hallador Energy owns Merom Generating Station, the only major vertically integrated power asset in Sullivan County, beside the 2.1GW Fluidstack/Google campus, and data center power demand outweighs coal's environmental concerns. Pairing coal with solar and batteries makes it palatable, and a reply notes Google's investment-grade credit and completed financing. Risks are water, as a dewatering lawsuit could freeze the project for 24 months, and dilution after a $50 million equity offering. x.com  … Show more

US stocks face a tougher stretch ahead, warranting patience. A hawkish Warsh caused a bear flattening of the yield curve, and the 30-year yield recently hit its highest since 2007. A Fed hike on September 16 looks likely because the October meeting falls just before the midterms. September has the worst seasonality, midterm years are worse than normal, and bipartisan pushback on data-center expansion pressures AI infrastructure. A Venezuelan oil deal may lower oil prices near term. x.com  x.com  … Show more

US stocks look increasingly vulnerable: high interest rates are making long positions harder, while more bearish setups are appearing as the market worsens. x.com