Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries benefit from falling long-end yields as the Fed's inflation response becomes a policy error. The Fed looks likely to hike again to defend its credibility despite a supply shock; 5% rates are unsustainable, and current price action points to financial damage followed by a hard pivot. A one-year rate freeze could instead let long yields rise by giving the economy a breather and making later hikes more likely. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are in a bear market as several forces push long yields higher. Oil and diesel prices tied to Russia-Ukraine, a Fed more determined since Jackson Hole to return inflation to 2% by holding rates high into a supply shock, and heavy corporate issuance for the AI buildout all weigh on bonds. Long yields are also returning toward their long-term average of about 5%. x.com 

The 10-year yield above 5% limits how far the US equity rally can stretch, even as stocks shrugged off the Fed hold. Two policymakers wanted a hike, the 10-year rose to about 5.04%, and bonds sold while all four major indices closed higher. Rates need to cool for the rally to extend. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields face more upward pressure than in the 1990s, a common comparison. Then, yields were high but falling from the early-1980s Volcker peak, and the US was the sole superpower. Now yields are turning up from their 2020 low, while the Iran war has driven oil-led inflation and exposed weaker US military dominance, denting confidence in Treasuries. Foreigners bought over $940 billion of US stocks in a year while selling Treasuries. Pressure persists until macro tensions ease. … Show more

Long bonds failed to rally after Warsh's speech. The 30-year yield first fell as expected, then reversed within about an hour. The TIPS market suggests his strong-economy message lifted real yields more than inflation compensation fell, and he gave little clarity on working with Bessent on the long end's supply-and-demand problem. The curve bear-flattened instead. Lower long-end yields could still tighten credit spreads and support neocloud valuations, but the bond call has been wrong. x.com  … Show more

Long-dated Treasuries now look more attractive than gold as a hands-off White House lets long-end yields fall. Trump said rate decisions are up to Warsh, realizing that staying away and keeping quiet is the best way to lower 10- and 20-year rates, and the term premium has already eased to reward Fed independence and its inflation fight. If Warsh instead signaled more cuts with Trump's praise, long bonds would slump. As @TShirtnJeans2 notes, a slightly hawkish Fed could help long duration. x.com  … Show more

Long-dated Treasuries face pressure because new Fed Chair Warsh signaled tightening intent without a single hawkish word. With the committee split, eight leaning to hikes and eight to cuts, one hike this year and possibly another in 2027 looks penciled in. He set up five working groups, including on inflation and the balance sheet, due by year-end, pointing to major moves before then. Big volatility is now near certain and risk assets' anchor has shifted, so do not catch falling knives. x.com