Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look like a high-reward, low-risk long as the 10-year yield meets strong resistance at 5%. Selling off into a 93% priced-in rate hike, with weak sentiment on both sides of the Fed decision, is not a recipe for continuation. Core CPI fell to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021, while headline CPI is stuck at 3.4% on an Iran-driven energy supply shock that a hike can't fix. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh calls the 10-year the most important asset in the world. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries may finally be worth buying because Kevin Warsh will cut rates in May regardless, since Trump will make him. A 3.82% dividend yield is on offer too. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries show textbook capitulation, suggesting the 10-year yield is near a temporary top. Long bonds have closed below the lower Bollinger band for five straight days on rising volume, with implied-volatility rank at an extreme, a sign of extremely crowded shorts. High rates do little to restrain highly profitable companies such as big tech and semiconductors. x.com 

Long bonds face renewed downside if Warsh turns dovish amid an energy shock that is likely only beginning. Hot CPI and PPI are not one-offs: oil tankers take two months to arrive, with further refining, manufacturing and distribution delays. A dovish Fed amid those prints will quickly send the 10-year yield to 6%. If Warsh softens tonight, long bonds will erase this week's gains and probably retest lows quickly; he is expected to sound even more hawkish than at Jackson Hole. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries benefit from falling long-end yields as the Fed's inflation response becomes a policy error. The Fed looks likely to hike again to defend its credibility despite a supply shock; 5% rates are unsustainable, and current price action points to financial damage followed by a hard pivot. A one-year rate freeze could instead let long yields rise by giving the economy a breather and making later hikes more likely. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries could rally after a Fed hike, because a hike could lower or at least cap the 10-year yield more than any other intervention at this point. The 10-year yield bottomed near 3.66% when Powell started cutting in September 2024 and has not returned there since. @lord_fed's point that the long end may rally after the hike, having sold off through the 2024 cutting cycle, holds. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries face pressure because the market will buy US debt only at 5%-plus yields, with no short-term fix in sight. The 10-year yield keeps climbing parabolically as Washington issues enormous debt to fund deficits, investors demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk, the Fed is now raising rates, and Treasuries must compete harder for global capital. The government seems reluctant to act, while rising oil prices add to inflation pressure. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries could rally 20-30% over the next few years if deflation outpaces growth for a period. That would pull investors into bonds to lock in higher yields, pushing yields down, since government money printing isn't keeping up with emerging deflation. US government finances should also strengthen as growth outpaces debt, making bonds more attractive. It is a small bet that should work for a period of time. x.com  x.com  x.com