Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.com 

Long bonds face renewed downside if Warsh turns dovish amid an energy shock that is likely only beginning. Hot CPI and PPI are not one-offs: oil tankers take two months to arrive, with further refining, manufacturing and distribution delays. A dovish Fed amid those prints will quickly send the 10-year yield to 6%. If Warsh softens tonight, long bonds will erase this week's gains and probably retest lows quickly; he is expected to sound even more hawkish than at Jackson Hole. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries benefit from falling long-end yields as the Fed's inflation response becomes a policy error. The Fed looks likely to hike again to defend its credibility despite a supply shock; 5% rates are unsustainable, and current price action points to financial damage followed by a hard pivot. A one-year rate freeze could instead let long yields rise by giving the economy a breather and making later hikes more likely. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

An October Fed hike could add pressure to long-dated Treasuries. Prediction markets put its chance at 54%, a bet that looks like paying 54 cents for a dollar. If Republicans' chance of losing the Senate rises to 75% or more, the Fed would have no incentive not to hike. TLT has another 'run for your life' candle. x.com 

Potential spending cuts and AI-related deflation make long-dated US Treasuries an asymmetric opportunity. A Democratic sweep could cut spending; an AI-trade blowup could cause deflation, while the AI trade hurts employment. Ending the Iran war could reduce spending and oil prices. Further crude gains could damage the economy hard and quickly enough to outweigh the inflation threat. x.com  x.com 

The secular rise in Treasury yields will likely last longer and go further than most expect, making bets on a yield low premature. Investors tried to time the low in yields from the early 2000s and were 20 years early. The most rate-sensitive sectors, homebuilders, mortgage names and private equity, where smart money would show up first if a turn were near, show no hint of accumulation. x.com  x.com 

A 1970s-style stagflation recession would leave long-dated US Treasuries exposed to inflation despite economic weakness. Grocery inflation is set to hit 4% in 2027 as the economy spirals into that downturn. x.com 

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are losing demand because an accelerating economy offers better opportunities than a 4% yield. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is rising sharply as data beats estimates. Yields are climbing while crude oil falls, so the move reflects growth rather than inflation fears, and the bond market is giving the Fed permission to hike. Treasuries, gold and defensive equities are slumping because no one wants safe havens in a risk-on market. x.com