Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries benefit from falling long-end yields as the Fed's inflation response becomes a policy error. The Fed looks likely to hike again to defend its credibility despite a supply shock; 5% rates are unsustainable, and current price action points to financial damage followed by a hard pivot. A one-year rate freeze could instead let long yields rise by giving the economy a breather and making later hikes more likely. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

The 10-year yield above 5% limits how far the US equity rally can stretch, even as stocks shrugged off the Fed hold. Two policymakers wanted a hike, the 10-year rose to about 5.04%, and bonds sold while all four major indices closed higher. Rates need to cool for the rally to extend. x.com 

Long bonds face renewed downside if Warsh turns dovish amid an energy shock that is likely only beginning. Hot CPI and PPI are not one-offs: oil tankers take two months to arrive, with further refining, manufacturing and distribution delays. A dovish Fed amid those prints will quickly send the 10-year yield to 6%. If Warsh softens tonight, long bonds will erase this week's gains and probably retest lows quickly; he is expected to sound even more hawkish than at Jackson Hole. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

The break in 30-year Treasuries shows the long end losing control as the world slowly starts ignoring the US. Per the FT via @unusual_whales, the White House accused more than 40 countries of helping China evade US tariffs, which signals the US does not control anything. The 20-year is also losing its level; if prices lose $82, the next wave is likely to $70. x.com  x.com 

The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries face pressure because new Fed Chair Warsh signaled tightening intent without a single hawkish word. With the committee split, eight leaning to hikes and eight to cuts, one hike this year and possibly another in 2027 looks penciled in. He set up five working groups, including on inflation and the balance sheet, due by year-end, pointing to major moves before then. Big volatility is now near certain and risk assets' anchor has shifted, so do not catch falling knives. x.com