Expensive borrowing makes debt-funded AI projects harder to justify, pressuring AI stocks and the S&P 500. Inflation keeps pressure on rates. If Republicans lose Congress after the midterms, Trump could rely on executive action to speed permits, power projects and existing funding programs, keeping AI investment moving despite expensive money. Tech and risk assets could catch a bid if earnings hold and bond yields settle; Fed cuts remain uncertain. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries could benefit from less issuance of AI-related debt, which today's news may point to, even if the deal itself is minor. Separately, a free Meta Muse hurts the leading AI models at least at the fringe, and wide consumer adoption of AI agents will come when Apple launches its own or partners with a model maker. x.com 

Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.com 

Treasuries offer diversification from AI risk because a tech decline would drag credit-sensitive bonds down with it. Stick to Treasuries rather than credit for that hedge. x.com 

The pause in attacks until the November 3 midterms is the catalyst for the next leg up in risk assets, including bitcoin, US small caps and long-dated Treasuries. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries face yields rising structurally for the first time in four decades. The 10-year yield has gone from 0.5% in summer 2020 to 5%, while oil and the dollar are turning at the same time. The worst stretches for financial assets were inflationary rotations into real assets, not crashes: from 1968 to 1982 US stocks rose 35% nominally but lost 51% in real terms. Long-wave cycles cluster a secular low in the late 2030s, though a projection is not a prophecy. x.com 

Far less inflated valuations and significant AI earnings make US equities unlike the dot-com market top. AI/SI spending may still be overexuberant. Rates and yields have returned to historical averages; more oil through the Strait of Hormuz and from OPEC and Russia should lower oil and inflation. The market may not have bottomed yet, but falling yields, steady rates and the midterms passing should let it climb the wall of worry. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AI productivity and agents mean fewer jobs, less spending and lower future tax revenue while concentrated US equities reach all-time highs. That recession risk is not priced in. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries could lose buyers to the AI buildout, pushing yields and government funding costs higher. Microsoft, Google and Amazon offer debt at a spread over Treasuries while generating over $100 billion a year in cash flow and 30%+ returns on capital, a better deal than lending to the government at 4.5%. Beyond about $725 billion of hyperscaler capex, debt for fabs, memory, power and the grid is about $3-5 trillion through 2030, comparable to Treasury issuance over that period. … Show more

Rising inflation, costlier AI infrastructure financing and growing Iran escalation risk point to the final major S&P 500 correction before the biggest phase of the AI boom. The index is near its 125-day average; its last break below in March was followed by another 10% drop. Keep cash ready: the next sell-off will create generational buying opportunities as neoclouds and hyperscalers turn infrastructure spending into explosive revenue and earnings growth. x.com