The prospect of renewed US attacks on Iran sends long-dated Treasuries up this time. HormuzLetter relays Drop Site's report that US forces are positioning for an expected green light to resume attacks. x.com 

Potential spending cuts and AI-related deflation make long-dated US Treasuries an asymmetric opportunity. A Democratic sweep could cut spending; an AI-trade blowup could cause deflation, while the AI trade hurts employment. Ending the Iran war could reduce spending and oil prices. Further crude gains could damage the economy hard and quickly enough to outweigh the inflation threat. x.com  x.com 

Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are set to rally as an Iran deal would crush oil and bring the long end its disinflation. Iran floated reopening the Strait of Hormuz within a week once the blockade lifts, crude sold off, and Trump wants a way out at the UN General Assembly, with Iran's president in the same city. An open strait means falling oil, energy dropping out of CPI and 10- and 30-year yields coming in hard. Kevin Warsh stays hawkish just long enough to keep bonds honest, then cuts. x.com 

Crude oil stays elevated as long as there is no deal with Iran, feeding a vicious cycle in which higher oil keeps inflation sticky and pushes rates higher, breaking the bond market. To bring yields down, Trump must either convince the market oil flows are normal or end the war. x.com 

US large caps, small caps and bitcoin face a sharp risk-off event if crude oil makes one more push to a new high, dragging the dollar and yields higher. Despite the ceasefire extension, the oil market remains pessimistic about the Strait of Hormuz reopening. x.com 

Bitcoin's break above $85K looks like a coiled spring, but confirmation depends on real demand. The rally is macro-driven, tracking easing oil and US-Iran diplomacy hopes after a selloff to about $74.9K. The key test is about $86K, the average cost basis of US spot bitcoin ETF investors; over $750M of liquidations, mostly shorts, helped the move. Holding $86K with positive ETF inflows and contained oil and yields would be constructive, and a September-October bottom fits the four-year cycle. … Show more

Crude oil should stay sticky and higher because a US-Iran deal is now less likely than at any prior stage of the war. Trust has collapsed after the truce fallout, and Trump has little motivation to push for peace while oil stays below $100 ahead of November; only a break above $100 would build inflationary and electoral pressure for action. Until then, rising 10-year yields above 4.6% are the biggest headwind for equities and bitcoin. Hopefully tensions ease instead. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look set to sell off as the 30-year yield nears a breakout. Russia and Iran's new anti-US front has found Treasuries a weak point, waging economic war on US debt to force Trump to back down, modeled on the Liberation Day trade war; European and UK selling adds to it. With midterms near, EUCOM interceptors depleted defending Israel and the SPR at a 40-year low, Washington has little room to maneuver. If current posturing holds, the long end should settle higher. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Fears of US strikes on Iran could send crude oil to $200 quickly. FinanceLancelot reports that the USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading to the Middle East and says the move has revived concern that Trump will follow through on threats to hit Iran after the midterm elections. x.com