Yimin X
Founder of YX Insights, Ex-FX/Rates Market Maker
US equities should decay steadily lower with time unless a Trump climbdown or dovish Hormuz headlines arrive, and could crash if the market concludes no positive news is coming. Oil works as a gauge of Hormuz sentiment, bleeding higher without dovish news and moving inversely to the S&P 500 since the war began. A US strike on Iran's Kharg Island is about as bearish a headline as possible, whether or not oil infrastructure was hit. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Uncertain AI-capex profits and higher oil costs from Iran still threaten US stocks. The SPCX-Nvidia deal brought much-needed overnight inflows to chips and is shifting sentiment, but tech's waterfall decline will not heal with a sharp V-bottom. Be prepared for a big fade. x.comÂ
The pause in attacks until the November 3 midterms is the catalyst for the next leg up in risk assets, including bitcoin, US small caps and long-dated Treasuries. x.comÂ
US stocks face pressure from rising yields and rate-hike anxiety as elevated oil keeps inflation fears alive. A global bond selloff deepened, the 10-year Treasury yield moved toward 5.2% and the 30-year touched levels last seen in 2004. Higher yields pressure stocks, bonds and borrowing costs, keeping US investors cautious; the S&P 500 edged lower and the Dow fell 0.3%. x.comÂ
Small caps, housing stocks and unprofitable tech that ran on rate-cut hopes face a sharp repricing, as odds of a rate hike at the Fed's July 29 meeting tripled in a week. Oil surged near $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, new global tariffs lifted inflation expectations and the 10-year yield hit 4.71%. A Wells Fargo strategist said the Fed may need to hike more and faster than expected. With consumers already fragile, a hike would reprice small caps overnight. x.comÂ
SPY's current pullback looks brief because whale accumulation remains above the level associated with mid-term trend continuation. The reading is 87.74%; it fell below 80% before both recent major crashes. Barring a black-swan event or major unexpected fundamental shift, this decline looks closer to earlier minor corrections. The stock market still has significant upside, and fear-driven discounts remain opportunities. x.com x.comÂ
The S&P 500's two-week rally on US-Iran ceasefire hopes looks like a bounce to fade rather than chase, because macro buying pressure is missing. The Monthly BX is still dark red, which typically means a 10-15% correction over about three months, most of which has played out, so no collapse is expected. Price sits below a red fair-value band, where rallies get sold, and is pressing into the point of control, a heavy volume level acting as resistance. Losing $652 turned structure bearish. x.com … Show more
Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's break above $85K looks like a coiled spring, but confirmation depends on real demand. The rally is macro-driven, tracking easing oil and US-Iran diplomacy hopes after a selloff to about $74.9K. The key test is about $86K, the average cost basis of US spot bitcoin ETF investors; over $750M of liquidations, mostly shorts, helped the move. Holding $86K with positive ETF inflows and contained oil and yields would be constructive, and a September-October bottom fits the four-year cycle. … Show more
US stocks face a tougher stretch ahead, warranting patience. A hawkish Warsh caused a bear flattening of the yield curve, and the 30-year yield recently hit its highest since 2007. A Fed hike on September 16 looks likely because the October meeting falls just before the midterms. September has the worst seasonality, midterm years are worse than normal, and bipartisan pushback on data-center expansion pressures AI infrastructure. A Venezuelan oil deal may lower oil prices near term. x.com x.com … Show more