Bitcoin's upside needs lower oil and inflation and stronger risk appetite; that macro shift has not arrived. IBIT holding 46.3 is a good sign, and its topping short-term cycle is not a deal killer. x.com 

The pause in attacks until the November 3 midterms is the catalyst for the next leg up in risk assets, including bitcoin, US small caps and long-dated Treasuries. x.com 

Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

An accelerated IEA emergency oil release could ease inflation pressure and help turn markets, including bitcoin, around. Strong Meta earnings showing AI returns or a softer Fed outlook on further hikes could also calm risk assets. Bitcoin may see another quick selloff first, but it looks capable of holding $80K through the next few days; holding there would suggest much of the fear is priced in. x.com 

Bitcoin and Ethereum's pullback is a nothing burger meant to shake people out, and this phase will lead to the next breakout higher. Bears are doubling down on shorts, with open interest rising while funding rates have turned negative. x.com 

Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.com 

Bitcoin's rally is the most hated kind, which is often how things look after a major bottom. After false starts, failed rallies and lower lows, people expect every bounce to fail, and the more of them wait for the next dump, the more fuel there is for price to keep squeezing higher. A correction will come sooner or later, but that alone would not mean the bear market is back. x.com 

Bitcoin's second-leg squeeze could be a big one as the dollar falls and rates back off. Traders positioned for an easy gap fill got caught right before the spring higher, and upside volume is returning. x.com 

Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com 

Bitcoin should rally in a big, serious geopolitical conflict, and it appears to be doing so as the seriousness of the war with Iran sets in and no quick US climbdown looks likely. Iran has attacked 16 ships in the Gulf. x.com  x.com