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OPEC has lost its grip on crude oil prices, and the floor is gone. The UAE walked out of OPEC during the war and Brent still fell to $79; a cartel that cannot hold $80 with a Middle East conflict raging is no longer a cartel. When the third-largest producer treats quotas as optional, enforcement is broken. Saudi Arabia may follow the 2014 playbook of crashing prices to punish cheaters and rebuild discipline. x.com x.com x.com
A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.com
An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com
Crude oil faces near-term pressure as Trump said US-Iran talks were productive and pledged no strikes before the November 3 elections; Brent fell to $103.36. Supply risks persist, however, with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. x.com
Oil traders anticipate a resumption of the Iran war after the midterm elections, favoring more upside for crude oil. After a bullish reversal off its 10-week moving average, the odds favor a continuation of the rally to the $110-120 range. x.com
Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.com
Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com x.com
Crude oil could still see a shock, possibly to $200. Per Tasnim via @HormuzLetter, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels, including tankers, in response to US strikes, and said any ship attempting transit will be attacked. @TheShortBear notes the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 349 million barrels and is drawing about 8 million a week, leaving roughly six weeks before the 300 million level widely seen as a panic trigger. x.com x.com
Oil stays above $80 well past the midterms because the supply problem persists despite peace headlines. Ships are still attacked near Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the UAE; a reported US strike on Iran's Konarak Naval Base ended nearly seven weeks without US strikes. There is nobody in Iran who can sign a deal and end the conflict. x.com
Crude oil's $150–200 longs face a silver-style reversal, as reports say Trump is weighing a seizure of Iran's critical Kharg Island oil depot, much like Venezuela. x.com
Crude oil could reach $150 within 30-60 days because Iran holds the leverage over Trump. Trump says the Iran MOU is not final, offers no immediate sanctions relief and threatens to resume bombing if he dislikes the deal. Iran's regime has every reason to let oil spike so the world blames Trump, so he needs to hit Iran harder than before. x.com