Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields face more upward pressure than in the 1990s, a common comparison. Then, yields were high but falling from the early-1980s Volcker peak, and the US was the sole superpower. Now yields are turning up from their 2020 low, while the Iran war has driven oil-led inflation and exposed weaker US military dominance, denting confidence in Treasuries. Foreigners bought over $940 billion of US stocks in a year while selling Treasuries. Pressure persists until macro tensions ease. … Show more

Potential spending cuts and AI-related deflation make long-dated US Treasuries an asymmetric opportunity. A Democratic sweep could cut spending; an AI-trade blowup could cause deflation, while the AI trade hurts employment. Ending the Iran war could reduce spending and oil prices. Further crude gains could damage the economy hard and quickly enough to outweigh the inflation threat. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are in a bear market as several forces push long yields higher. Oil and diesel prices tied to Russia-Ukraine, a Fed more determined since Jackson Hole to return inflation to 2% by holding rates high into a supply shock, and heavy corporate issuance for the AI buildout all weigh on bonds. Long yields are also returning toward their long-term average of about 5%. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries have further to fall because bonds have not reached capitulation and may still be in denial. Treasury prices have hit fresh lows, and the selling plausibly comes from anyone who needs to repay US-dollar-denominated debt. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

The closed Strait of Hormuz adds an energy-driven inflation shock that pushes long-dated US Treasury yields higher still. Japan and China, the two biggest foreign Treasury holders, are dumping $5.35 trillion and $550 billion in Treasuries respectively; more supply requires higher yields to draw buyers, raising US debt-financing costs. The bond shock then pressures stocks, real estate and crypto, with October 12 at risk of one of 2026's biggest market sell-offs. x.com 

The break in 30-year Treasuries shows the long end losing control as the world slowly starts ignoring the US. Per the FT via @unusual_whales, the White House accused more than 40 countries of helping China evade US tariffs, which signals the US does not control anything. The 20-year is also losing its level; if prices lose $82, the next wave is likely to $70. x.com  x.com 

The pause in attacks until the November 3 midterms is the catalyst for the next leg up in risk assets, including bitcoin, US small caps and long-dated Treasuries. x.com 

Long-dated government bond yields are surging worldwide at once, a sign something is wrong. UK 30-year yields hit 5.88%, the highest since 1998, the US 30-year topped 5%, Japan's 10-year reached 2.95%, and German and French long yields hit 2011 and 2008 highs. The roots are dangerous government debt levels, European and UK central bank balance-sheet shrinkage, and tech giants issuing 20-40-year bonds that draw pension and insurer demand away from government debt. x.com