Long-dated Treasury yields face more upward pressure than in the 1990s, a common comparison. Then, yields were high but falling from the early-1980s Volcker peak, and the US was the sole superpower. Now yields are turning up from their 2020 low, while the Iran war has driven oil-led inflation and exposed weaker US military dominance, denting confidence in Treasuries. Foreigners bought over $940 billion of US stocks in a year while selling Treasuries. Pressure persists until macro tensions ease. … Show more

Long-dated US Treasury yields face structural upward pressure until deficits fall, and neither party shows the will to cut them. US deficits of 6% are the highest ever outside a major war, and debt above $40 trillion against $33 trillion of GDP could be the breaking point. Japan's 10-year yield near 3%, the highest since 1996, gives it reason to sell some of its $1 trillion of Treasuries, and the UK, holding $0.9 trillion, has 10-year yields at 5.1%. Fed action may only briefly slow the rise. … Show more

Potential spending cuts and AI-related deflation make long-dated US Treasuries an asymmetric opportunity. A Democratic sweep could cut spending; an AI-trade blowup could cause deflation, while the AI trade hurts employment. Ending the Iran war could reduce spending and oil prices. Further crude gains could damage the economy hard and quickly enough to outweigh the inflation threat. x.com  x.com 

The bid for US Treasuries is thinning beyond Japan, leaving the US needing new buyers to fund its borrowing. Net purchases by the most US-aligned countries are down more than 60% to their lowest since 2021; South Korea sold a record $23.8 billion, the most since 1977. x.com 

Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries benefit from falling long-end yields as the Fed's inflation response becomes a policy error. The Fed looks likely to hike again to defend its credibility despite a supply shock; 5% rates are unsustainable, and current price action points to financial damage followed by a hard pivot. A one-year rate freeze could instead let long yields rise by giving the economy a breather and making later hikes more likely. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated government bond yields are surging worldwide at once, a sign something is wrong. UK 30-year yields hit 5.88%, the highest since 1998, the US 30-year topped 5%, Japan's 10-year reached 2.95%, and German and French long yields hit 2011 and 2008 highs. The roots are dangerous government debt levels, European and UK central bank balance-sheet shrinkage, and tech giants issuing 20-40-year bonds that draw pension and insurer demand away from government debt. x.com 

AI borrowing is pushing rates up because hyperscalers will pay any price for money, so rates must keep rising until they hurt price-sensitive borrowers. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle sold about $194 billion of bonds by early July, 79% more than in all of 2025, and the 10-year yield touched 5.33%, the highest since 2002. Julien Garran warns a downturn may not lower long yields much, with big deficits everywhere while Japan and China step back from Treasuries. x.com 

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com