Renewed inflation raises the risk of a December rate hike and downside for the Nasdaq 100. Per Wall St Engine, core PCE reached 3.1% year over year, up from 3.0%, and rose 0.3% month over month, up from 0.2% previously. CPI, PPI and PCE are all rising again; a December hike is the bet. x.com 

Forward risks matter more than good earnings for the Nasdaq now. The index looks to be topping and has a good shot at 28,000 before a rally after the midterms; tomorrow's PCE and GDP releases are unlikely to help, and this week's lows could break. x.com  x.com 

The Iran war, rising oil prices and inflationary pressure do not yet look severe enough to trigger a major economic crisis. Despite some deterioration in the macro picture and short-term volatility, the broader picture remains relatively healthy and the long-term outlook for US large-cap and Nasdaq 100 stocks is very positive. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 faces short-term downside because a failed push to a new high leaves crowded bullish sentiment vulnerable to a break below. Despite record institutional accumulation and a long-term bullish position, five months of chop, a failed ATH and an attempted loss of the bullish trend favor hedging rather than adding leverage. x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq looks headed lower as the Iran war points to inflation, higher oil prices and rising yields that will force tough Fed decisions. Iran is expected to respond to Ukrainian attacks, China and Russia are acknowledging US struggles, and the Houthis and Iran are hitting regional oil infrastructure, destroying facilities that will take years to rebuild. A Fed hike is 35-40% likely, Mag 7 capex is at record highs, and the index is near support. AI and semis remain bullish longer term. x.com  … Show more

The Nasdaq 100 stands to gain as Trump's Iran deal trades geopolitical leverage for lower oil and easier money. Giving Iran billions and ceding Middle East leverage has pushed Brent crude down to $86 a barrel, which should crush core inflation before the elections and give the Fed a clear path to cut rates, boosting tech stocks. x.com 

Nasdaq-100 tech stocks lean bearish in the day's stock market preview. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 cannot go up with oil at $90, and until oil and inflation are under control the market will stay tough. Since roughly last October the market has been choppy, much like 2021, when the indexes looked fine while things blew up under the surface, and no clear theme is taking charge. A complete washout, such as a 15% Nasdaq drop from here, would be preferable to this death by a thousand cuts. x.com 

Rising S&P earnings revisions and a Nasdaq valuation far below the 2000 bubble level argue against a bull trap in US large caps. Nasdaq trades at 18x forward earnings versus over 80x in 2000. Positive breadth divergences, record short ETF exposure and put volume, and semiconductors waking up add to the case. In all 19 post-midterm instances cited, markets were very green over the following 12 months. x.com  x.com 

US stocks face a potentially bigger selloff as rising inflation compounds concerns about AI spending. PCE inflation reached a four-month high of 3.6%, increasing pressure on the Fed to raise rates; Alphabet shares fell after disappointing earnings, slowing ad growth and more than $51 billion of quarterly capital investment. x.com