Rich Peter
Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs
The Nasdaq 100 stands to gain as Trump's Iran deal trades geopolitical leverage for lower oil and easier money. Giving Iran billions and ceding Middle East leverage has pushed Brent crude down to $86 a barrel, which should crush core inflation before the elections and give the Fed a clear path to cut rates, boosting tech stocks. x.comÂ
The Iran war, rising oil prices and inflationary pressure do not yet look severe enough to trigger a major economic crisis. Despite some deterioration in the macro picture and short-term volatility, the broader picture remains relatively healthy and the long-term outlook for US large-cap and Nasdaq 100 stocks is very positive. x.comÂ
Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com x.comÂ
Hotter-than-expected inflation is pressuring the Nasdaq as yields rise. September CPI reached 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast; hot oil, rising rates and the active Iran war accompanied the Nasdaq's 2% drop. The Nasdaq also failed to hold 745. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The pause in attacks until the November 3 midterms is the catalyst for the next leg up in risk assets, including bitcoin, US small caps and long-dated Treasuries. x.comÂ
A breadth thrust and fresh buying point to at least a multi-week rise in US indices, most probably a big rally for a few months after the midterms. LS Breadth is flipping bullish as the bear count falls; more stocks are starting uptrends and first consolidations. The Nasdaq 100 is bouncing with strong breadth, and the S&P 500 looks ready to leave a massive base. The Nasdaq 100 could sell off at declining averages but should rise if broad selling does not return. x.comÂ
Renewed inflation raises the risk of a December rate hike and downside for the Nasdaq 100. Per Wall St Engine, core PCE reached 3.1% year over year, up from 3.0%, and rose 0.3% month over month, up from 0.2% previously. CPI, PPI and PCE are all rising again; a December hike is the bet. x.comÂ
Crude oil stays elevated as long as there is no deal with Iran, feeding a vicious cycle in which higher oil keeps inflation sticky and pushes rates higher, breaking the bond market. To bring yields down, Trump must either convince the market oil flows are normal or end the war. x.comÂ
Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.comÂ
Forward risks matter more than good earnings for the Nasdaq now. The index looks to be topping and has a good shot at 28,000 before a rally after the midterms; tomorrow's PCE and GDP releases are unlikely to help, and this week's lows could break. x.com x.comÂ
A Trump tweet over the weekend is expected to bring crude oil down. The call also anticipates a sharp bounce on Monday. x.comÂ
