Temple 8 Research
AI Buildout, Macro & Energy Infrastructure Research
Nihon Dempa Kogyo is the overlooked timing layer of the optical build-out: 1.6T transceivers need ultra-low-jitter quartz oscillators, since a picosecond of jitter at 200G per lane corrupts data. It is the sole vertically integrated Western supplier of ultra-pure quartz, used in F-35 radar, 5G/6G and space. China restricts quality quartz exports and the US may name it a critical mineral. SiTime's MEMS timing cannot match quartz on jitter at 1.6T or radiation hardness. Market cap is about 350M. x.com x.com
SiTime's quartz-to-MEMS shift extends beyond AI servers, supporting growth if AI training spend slows. Q2 CED rose 181% to $101M, AIED (auto, industrial, aerospace and defense) 51% to $25M, and MIC (mobile/consumer, mostly Apple) 85% to $31M; CED is still largest and fastest. About a quarter of acquired Renesas timing revenue is industrial and auto. Design-in timing content tends to stick even if server builds pause. Space and robots have separate potential demand. x.com x.com x.com
SiTime's timing content multiplies as AI data-center bandwidth scales, driving continued hypergrowth. Moving from 800G to 1.6T optical modules splits links into more, faster lanes with tighter jitter budgets and extra clock domains, so each module needs more and better timing parts, lifting volumes and prices. High-radix switches multiply timing content the same way. Its discrete parts sit apart from GPU and switch ASICs, so demand rises in several places in NVIDIA-based racks at once. x.com
SiTime's opportunity is being missed because AI inference needs far more timing content than training, so even a pause in training doesn't really matter. Per its Q1 commentary, inference infrastructure on newer XPUs needs two to four times more timing content per system; in Q2 it said synchronization adds several hundred dollars of content per rack across accelerators, switches and other subsystems. Demand is also spreading to enterprise, captive, neocloud and sovereign data centers. x.com
Viavi is capitalizing on a wartime expansion of its market as jamming and spoofing make resilient positioning, navigation and timing essential. It partnered with Ground Control to integrate its Secure µPNT STL-1000 receiver, which provides precise timing with holdover through Viavi's SecureTime LEO services, into the RockFLEET Assured system for maritime vessel tracking and navigation in GNSS-denied environments. x.com
Everspin's case rests on follow-on Department of Defense programs within 18 months; if they do not come, the thesis is wrong. Kerrisdale's short report is right that the valuation is disconnected from fundamentals and revenue has stagnated for five years, but wrongly treats the $40M contract as a revenue event rather than a domestic capability buildout. It also underplays LEO satellites, about 10% of revenue, where Toggle MRAM's radiation hardness matters. The Q2 report on August 6 is next. … Show more