Oracle's big rally on its RPO jump was fake, and the only data since show OpenAI writing checks its business can't cash. The pop came on an earnings miss and took 57 days to undo; the stock then fell another 46% and has dropped after every report since. Within two weeks, a force majeure dismissed as a nothing burger gave way to word that its cash-incinerating key customer has $20B less revenue than due diligence assumed. Shorting in size is still hard. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Heavy AI-related borrowing with little to show for it is pressuring Oracle, IREN and Nebius shares. These stocks are beginning to trend lower. x.com 

Oracle looks mispriced because $11 of current consolidated earnings power puts it at 11x earnings without a breakup. It trades below its software business's value despite the highest gross retention in software; separating pre-AI OCI, AI operations and AI development makes it an obvious long. Future funding will cost more, but current leverage is no issue and all contracts are well below spot, leaving nowhere near neocloud risk. Fundamentals may not matter during panics. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's OpenAI exposure makes buying its shares here a bet too big to take. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's reliance on OpenAI makes its backlog vulnerable. About $250B of backlog comes from OpenAI, which is not making money; that risk is no longer in Oracle's hands, and the stock is very likely to fall further. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's non-AI revenue and scale could help it outlast debt-starved neoclouds. Elon Musk says debt markets have largely shut out firms lacking substantial non-AI revenue. Oracle raised $20B through an ATM without significant dilution; unlike other major hyperscalers, it is not building Nvidia alternatives, giving Nvidia reason to prioritize it. If Musk is right, consolidation could lift Oracle's pricing power; at 19x earnings, it is without a doubt one of AI infrastructure's best buys. x.com 

Oracle faces double jeopardy, viewed both as a legacy software business and as an overlevered infrastructure business that depends on OpenAI being good for its capex commitments. OpenAI is already so aggressively valued that even catching Anthropic in private valuation leaves limited upside, which also limits how much SoftBank, which @goodalexander calls leveraged long OpenAI, could benefit. x.com 

Oracle looks set to burn many more billions in cash at least into the first half of fiscal 2028. That is the less reassuring implication of Reuters' headline that Oracle expects cash flow to turn positive in the second half of that fiscal year, even though the market liked the news. x.com 

Oracle looks buyable for now because the large financing and equity raises feared for next year no longer look imminent. New Mexico commissioners say there were no talks to alter Project Jupiter's power agreement and doubt a majority will approve a change; Stargate may be over a year behind. PIMCO has left AI data-center bonds, which still threatens funding. This is probably a bottom until the AI bubble pops; wait until $200 to short. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle looks all-in, borrowing $124 billion for AI infrastructure while its supply chain and energy costs are tied to a war zone. Its backlog has to turn into actual cash before interest payments eat the company alive. The market already prices Oracle with more risk than in 2008. A post the author replies to reports Oracle cut 20,000-30,000 jobs, about 18% of its workforce, in one morning, which TD Cowen estimates saves $8-10 billion a year in cash flow. x.com