Soitec's discount likely won't last until 2027, because a 300% increase in silicon area for co-packaged optics is too strong a catalyst for the market to ignore for two years. Per @michaelsikand, a pluggable or LPO transceiver uses about 50 square millimeters of photonics-SOI per chip versus about 200 for a CPO switch package, with CPO production ramping in 2027. x.com 

Soitec's Q1 shows its photonics wafer monopoly turning into growth. It makes the Photonics-SOI substrate under nearly every silicon photonics chip, from TSMC's COUPE to Applied Optoelectronics and Coherent transceivers and Nvidia and Broadcom CPO switches, with 95%+ share. Photonics-SOI sales doubled to over half the €65M Edge & Cloud AI segment. Revenue of €113M rose 23% at constant currency versus 15% guided, Q2 guidance is 30%+ versus 4% expected, and its Singapore 300mm fab qualified early. … Show more

Soitec now looks overextended after a rapid run, and a pullback is likely. The AI photonics bottlenecks behind the thesis are real, but it is hard to judge what premium each name deserves, which makes the stock hard to value at these levels. x.com 

Soitec gains from co-packaged optics, which multiply its Photonics-SOI content about 4x per optical port, from roughly 50mm² in a pluggable to 200mm² in a CPO switch. Its proprietary Smart Cut process, with over 4,300 patents and 12-24-month foundry qualification lock-in, gives it over 95% of photonics substrates. Morgan Stanley upgraded it to overweight with a €70 target, up from €35, citing an underappreciated mix shift that should expand gross margins. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Soitec is now a bet on its future photonics ramp, since the next few quarters will be bad too. Buying today means buying that photonics story, with the weaker mobile segment carried along with it. x.com 

Soitec remains a longer-term CPO story because it effectively has a monopoly on CPO-type substrates, even after weak FY26 results. Revenue fell 30% to €592M and EBITDA 49% as mobile and auto/industrial declined, and FY27 profits will suffer from low fab loading. But Photonics-SOI revenue topped $100M earlier than expected on growing CPO volumes, in line with TSMC's COUPE and Nvidia's optics timeline, and FD-SOI plus Photonics-SOI grew 25%. It must lift profits within about 18-24 months. x.com  … Show more

Soitec holds a monopoly on the Photonics SOI wafers the AI photonics trade runs through, yet trades at just 3.6x forward EV/revenue. Silicon photonics chips in AI data centers, from transceivers to Nvidia switches and Broadcom ASICs, are built on it via its proprietary Smart Cut process; GlobalWafers exits by 2027 and Shin-Etsu sells little. Optical interconnect grows from about $10 billion to over $70 billion by 2030, and top customer Tower Semiconductor targets 5x capacity by end-2026. x.com 

Soitec has room to re-rate because it is one of the only photonics names not yet priced for perfect execution and market demand. Large investment banks made three target upgrades over the past month, with EUR 200-300 targets and buy ratings. x.com 

Soitec's chokepoint thesis is being validated as silicon photonics goes mainstream. UBS estimates it holds 95% of the substrate market for silicon photonics chips, and revenue usually flows through such a monopoly-like position. Soitec now expects 80% of more than 10 capacity reservation agreements within one to two weeks and calls $200M of photonics-SOI revenue absolutely a floor. TSMC sees silicon photonics topping 50% of the optical transceiver market in 2027. x.com  x.com 

Soitec is an attractive name in the photonics supply chain. Per @HyperTechInvest, it trades at 14x forward EV/EBITDA, the lowest among key photonics suppliers, versus 33x for Coherent, 45x for Lumentum and 120x for Applied Optoelectronics. @zephyr_z9 flags a risk of demand destruction in mobile. x.com  x.com