VenkatP
Physician, Growth & Value Stock Investor
Off-price retailers TJX and Ross Stores have almost everything going for them except broad consumer weakness, and even there they probably benefit from trade-down, or are far less hurt than many consumer categories. Ross is crushing it, while TJX gets too much hate: relatively weaker, but its business is not falling apart, and the two are not just in a knife fight for share. x.com x.comÂ
Ross Stores is a catch-up play to TJX as it works to close its productivity gap. Off-price retail is strong as consumers seek value and plenty of inventory is available to buy. Better sales and selection make sellers and brands more willing to work with Ross, which draws more shoppers and improves inventory turns in a flywheel. x.comÂ
TJX Companies remains off the list because of its dividend cut, which still counts against it. x.comÂ
Altria, Johnson & Johnson, Waste Management, TJX, Linde, Costco and Quest Diagnostics add defense to a portfolio, scoring highest among S&P 500 stocks on an antifragility screen of low volatility, strong free cash flow, minimal debt and stable earnings. All are also trending up this year, with momentum scores above 75; Altria scores 100 on antifragility and J&J 99. x.comÂ
Discount retailers are a built-in recession hedge because consumers trade down rather than stop spending. Walmart, Costco, TJX, and Dollar General should benefit as worsening economic conditions send more shoppers through their doors. x.comÂ
The S&P 500's elevated P/E masks concentration in just a few stocks, making index exposure less appealing than selective stock picking for risk and reward. Its P/E is well above the ten-year median; digging into individual constituents looks more sensible than buying all 500. x.comÂ
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is among the companies reporting this week, with thoughts on its earnings shared alongside Campbell's, Duluth and Lululemon. x.comÂ