chatSBC
Equity & Macro Commentary, Technology Investing
Healthcare and biotech baskets like ARK Genomic Revolution ETF are tricky to short because they behave like baskets of options: one or two winners can return the whole fund, and AI makes it much more likely that a few succeed. @LongVollllll sees an asymmetric short, arguing holdings are 50-100% overvalued, burn cash as rates break out and rallied on unrelated Moderna news. x.comÂ
The biotech and genomics boom is best owned broadly, because single biotech stocks are binary bets on trial results no analyst can handicap. One failed readout can halve a stock, as Novo Nordisk's lost market value on disappointing data showed. Owning blue-chip biotech and high-beta genomics as diversified baskets captures the funding rebound, the AI drug-discovery tailwind and the re-rating after years of deep bear market and a decisive breakout, without the single-molecule lottery. x.com x.com … Show more
Genomics stocks appear to be benefiting from AI, with the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF clearly outpacing broader biotech. x.comÂ
AI-enabled healthcare and genomics could deliver the next photonics-like returns, as AI transforms the sector and improves success rates just as it did in tech. The market is getting ready to price these names as future winners, and those that succeed will be real winners. Beaten-down stocks such as AbCellera, Tempus AI and Twist Bioscience, plus the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF, are looking at billion-dollar markets. x.comÂ
Biotech is the next AI trade after compute and memory as the market shifts to the application layer, and the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF could top $100. Biotech runs on data, pattern recognition, R&D and precise manufacturing, all things AI excels at, helping firms like Twist, Tempus and CRISPR make drugs faster and reach profit sooner. The Trump administration is also opening the door to innovation and M&A. Winners are hard to pick, so a basket is easiest; expect volatility. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
ARKG's genomics thesis faces a timing problem, as much of the index consists of companies with no important clinical data readouts until 2028 or later. Clinical trials remain painstakingly long, and AI is moving faster than trial progress can keep up with, raising the question of when the broader biotech theme becomes overextended. x.comÂ
Small- and mid-cap biotech looks like one of healthcare's more asymmetric setups after a four-year bear market, as AI speeds drug discovery and Big Pharma faces a patent cliff. Over $300B of pharma revenue goes off patent in the next few years, M&A is already ramping hard as pharma hunts for assets, and many small and mid-cap names still trade at reasonable valuations, making them potential takeover targets. x.comÂ
Money keeps rotating into healthcare, which is where market strength is. The rotation into biotech continues, with leveraged biotech exposure offering the fireworks. Pharma offers steadier, broad exposure with no dominant holding and a chart that is fine enough. x.com x.comÂ
Biotech is the next AI trade, as AI turns drug discovery from a 10-year guessing game into a data problem while investors still treat the sector like a casino. Tempus AI uses a large clinical dataset for AI diagnostics; Recursion maps over a trillion cells with Genentech and Sanofi as partners; CRISPR Therapeutics has catalysts before end-2026; Absci designs antibodies with generative AI and starts Phase 2; Schrödinger sells physics-plus-AI design software and posted a surprise profit. x.com … Show more
AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com … Show more
Twist Bioscience looks more like a bubble than an investment case, even though it could benefit as AI multiplies drug candidates and pushes value up the biotech chain. It led the 2021 biotech bubble and still loses money, so buyers pay for the story, not the business. The same AI thesis is simpler and cheaper to own in vertical market software, through serial acquirers such as Constellation Software and Topicus, which gain more acquisition targets as software gets cheaper to build. x.comÂ
