Moody
Equity Investor, Semiconductor Research
Twist Bioscience looks more like a bubble than an investment case, even though it could benefit as AI multiplies drug candidates and pushes value up the biotech chain. It led the 2021 biotech bubble and still loses money, so buyers pay for the story, not the business. The same AI thesis is simpler and cheaper to own in vertical market software, through serial acquirers such as Constellation Software and Topicus, which gain more acquisition targets as software gets cheaper to build. x.com
Illumina's disappointing earnings are a negative read for AI drug-discovery stocks. ScorpionFund points to management's tentative 2027 timing for BioInsight becoming more visible in results, despite upbeat AI-product commentary, and names Twist Bioscience among the affected stocks. x.com
Twist Bioscience is not a bet worth taking at about 25x sales. @FredaDuan's pitch that AI drug discovery makes it a bottleneck trade, with Twist expecting triple-digit growth in AI-enabled drug-discovery orders in FY26 and again in FY27, is clickbait. x.com x.com
Twist Bioscience's upside is still quite nicely linked to AI-enabled design and discovery despite its run. Citrini acknowledges that run; Twist is hardly asymmetric or underappreciated here. x.com
AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com … Show more
The AI-biology narrative in biotech tools has no connection to fundamental growth. Illumina's two-year compounded growth rate is only 2.2%; the narrative is a made-up pump and dump. x.com
Twist Bioscience could benefit as cheaper AI hypothesis generation and validation make physical experiments the bottleneck. It is currently the purest Anthropic-related biotech beneficiary in this view because Twist handles those experiments. More efficient hypothesis work may eventually ease even that bottleneck, but it is too early to give up on the opportunity. x.com
The biotech and genomics boom is best owned broadly, because single biotech stocks are binary bets on trial results no analyst can handicap. One failed readout can halve a stock, as Novo Nordisk's lost market value on disappointing data showed. Owning blue-chip biotech and high-beta genomics as diversified baskets captures the funding rebound, the AI drug-discovery tailwind and the re-rating after years of deep bear market and a decisive breakout, without the single-molecule lottery. x.com x.com … Show more
Biotech is the next AI trade, as AI turns drug discovery from a 10-year guessing game into a data problem while investors still treat the sector like a casino. Tempus AI uses a large clinical dataset for AI diagnostics; Recursion maps over a trillion cells with Genentech and Sanofi as partners; CRISPR Therapeutics has catalysts before end-2026; Absci designs antibodies with generative AI and starts Phase 2; Schrödinger sells physics-plus-AI design software and posted a surprise profit. x.com … Show more
Twist Bioscience has real explosive upside in the AI science basket because it makes biology programmable. Its Anthropic partnership, with Claude in the loop, is already rerating the stock, and it just opened a wet lab in San Francisco. AI is moving from code into the physical sciences, and despite the jump on Google news, it is still early. x.com
Pacific Biosciences is not worth owning because the genomics space is reliving its 2021 bubble, and bubbles without fundamentals are just meme stocks. It is a broken company that will go bankrupt. x.com x.com x.com
