3X Long Labubu
Long-Term Investor, Hobby Trader
AI-for-science stocks show a typical pump-and-dump setup driven by Chinese and Hong Kong hedge funds, and more pumps and dumps are likely. These funds trade narratives and price in an extremely bright future, so consensus forms fast and crowded positions reverse easily. When Chinese sell-side analysts or the Chinese community on X are loud about a thesis, it is a trade to avoid. Fundamentals still look exciting, and key moving averages are the signal to re-enter long. x.com x.com
The AI-for-science rally looks like a volatile pump-and-dump setup. Fundamentals still look exciting, but US clinical trials are the bottleneck, which puts a question mark on the final economic value; AI should speed trials eventually, but not imminently. The parabolic move, fed by euphoric Chinese sell-side analysts and Chinese and Hong Kong hedge funds rushing in regardless of the 5-day average, is a warning. Even Recursion, a weak name, is flying. x.com x.com
Biotech tools stocks such as Charles River and Illumina are in a narrative-driven mania while their fundamentals haven't really moved. Charles River is ripping after reaffirming guidance for negative revenue growth this year. Illumina hasn't grown in five years, yet trades at over 50x earnings and 35x EV/EBITDA, with merely fine margins. Five straight years of easier comparisons are being sold as a coiled spring. x.com x.com x.com
AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com … Show more
Tempus AI is being repriced because its acquisition of Personalis benefits directly from positive Moderna news, while short covering is still underway. Short interest is about 30 million shares, over eight days of normal 3-5 million share volume, and the three-day surge absorbed under a third of it. A small market cap makes the stock easy to push higher, and bullish divergences on the three-day and weekly charts usually last weeks to months. Resistance sits at 74-76, 80 and 84-86. x.com x.com … Show more
AI semiconductor stocks are falling because valuations priced in too much growth beyond 2026-27, not because fundamentals are worsening. With the sector ETF up more than 100% year to date at one point, Q2 earnings couldn't meet those expectations, and a crowded trade is deleveraging as everyone races for the same exit. Fundamentals are likely improving, so as positioning and valuation reset the trade can continue, but selectively. x.com
AI bottleneck semiconductor stocks look to have gotten ahead of themselves, with roughly a hundred near-vertical charts where downside now seems to outweigh upside. They are semis and highly cyclical, and many smaller caps may end up trading like meme stocks. A substantial shakeout would offer a better entry. AI, robotics and energy still have years of growth ahead, but chasing these names now is not advisable. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Tempus AI is one of the highest-conviction setups now, and the widespread doubt about its move is itself bullish. The skepticism was earned by a year of false starts, but clearing $58 should flip sentiment quickly, with a near-term target of $68-$73. A weekly break above $73 sets a medium- to long-term target of $144-$168. Momentum is building on both lower and higher timeframes, while about 38M shares, roughly 28% of the float, are sold short into the breakout. x.com x.com x.com
Cerebras is the stock most prone to a gamma squeeze if it rallies, given its options skew and heavy call positioning above the price. Replying to @Balder13946731's point that mispriced options fueled a Micron gamma squeeze, Cerebras is named the easiest candidate. OpenAI takes each unit Cerebras produces; that business carries low margins but helps Cerebras secure wafer allocation. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Semiconductors and other AI assets keep getting a non-stop bid because of slow money. Many non-tech-savvy fund managers sitting on trillions of dollars, such as average UK and EU asset managers, are only now realizing AI exists after trying tools like Claude and agents, and their capital is still moving in, even as valuations outside memory reach ridiculous levels. x.com
AI biotech names such as Tempus AI, Recursion, Ginkgo Bioworks and Prime Medicine could become the new home for money rotating out of AI and semiconductor leaders, with Moderna and Merck's positive phase 3 melanoma results for their mRNA neoantigen therapy a possible catalyst. Sentiment toward AI in healthcare should be far warmer than toward job-displacing AI, since everyone faces disease, and could top the semis trade. Indices could chop or fall while these biotechs outperform. x.com x.com … Show more
China reportedly restricted overseas travel for key AI talent at Alibaba and DeepSeek, a sign Beijing sees them as its two most strategic AI assets, and Alibaba could deliver surprises over the next couple of months. US tech has outperformed, but the bad news looks baked in, and any Chinese surprise could send Alibaba to the stratosphere. x.com x.com
