Moderna is not a long here because its valuation is now super stretched after a huge one-day move. Per @A_May_MD, Moderna added $45B in market cap on a dataless phase 3 press release in adjuvant combination melanoma, with a drug it owns only half of. Non-experts expecting AI to cure cancer and develop drugs at insane speed are out of their league. The news is great, but risk needs managing, and this may work only as a trade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

AI biotech names such as Tempus AI, Recursion, Ginkgo Bioworks and Prime Medicine could become the new home for money rotating out of AI and semiconductor leaders, with Moderna and Merck's positive phase 3 melanoma results for their mRNA neoantigen therapy a possible catalyst. Sentiment toward AI in healthcare should be far warmer than toward job-displacing AI, since everyone faces disease, and could top the semis trade. Indices could chop or fall while these biotechs outperform. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Tempus AI is a short idea because the stock is being pumped on recent FDA clearances for its EKG-AI tools, while the revenue from them is far off and may never materialize. x.com 

Tempus AI is one of the highest-conviction setups now, and the widespread doubt about its move is itself bullish. The skepticism was earned by a year of false starts, but clearing $58 should flip sentiment quickly, with a near-term target of $68-$73. A weekly break above $73 sets a medium- to long-term target of $144-$168. Momentum is building on both lower and higher timeframes, while about 38M shares, roughly 28% of the float, are sold short into the breakout. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tempus AI may be about to go on a run, and its short interest looks a bit rich. As of June 15, 38M of its 180M shares outstanding were sold short, a roughly $2B position at $54. x.com 

AI-for-science stocks show a typical pump-and-dump setup driven by Chinese and Hong Kong hedge funds, and more pumps and dumps are likely. These funds trade narratives and price in an extremely bright future, so consensus forms fast and crowded positions reverse easily. When Chinese sell-side analysts or the Chinese community on X are loud about a thesis, it is a trade to avoid. Fundamentals still look exciting, and key moving averages are the signal to re-enter long. x.com  x.com 

Moderna is worth roughly $190-215 a share on a probability-weighted outcome tree, above the $157 price after its melanoma vaccine readout. Failure implies $75-85, melanoma-only $125-160, positive Phase 3 lung data $250-400, and broad cancer vaccination far more. The market is more skeptical on lung, and that readout decides the trade. With about 50M shares short, a squeeze could hit $400 before a return to a $120-190 range. Most outcomes sit at or below the price, so defined risk is warranted. … Show more

Tempus AI's growth story has become a real one, with Q2 revenue up 22% to $382.5 million, positive net income and EBITDA, a 73.5% gross margin and $816 million of cash. Its $1.5 billion Personalis deal owns the sequencing technology behind the Moderna-Merck mRNA cancer vaccine, whose strong Phase 3 melanoma results validated the bet. Piper Sandler upgraded it to Overweight with a $76 target, up from $56, citing Personalis and strong INTerpath-001 MRD data. $80 is support for the breakout. x.com 

Tempus AI is a second- or third-tier genomic lab whose AI story is marketing mumbo jumbo, and its management team are promoters. x.com 

Tempus AI's selloff after it beat and raised guidance looks like a great deal, and a further drop would be a chance to buy more. x.com